JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 5:20 PM EDT050
FXUS63 KJKL 022120
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming
week, with record or near-record temperatures forecast for
Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
Expecting a quiet, uneventful short term. Ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface will guarantee fair weather through the
period, with afternoon temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above
our normal highs of about 60 degrees for tomorrow. Overnight lows
will be close to normal tonight, ranging from the mid 30s in our
coolest valley locations to the mid 40s along our thermal belt.
With the surface high to our east tomorrow night, a strengthening
southerly gradient wind (return flow) will lift temperatures
above normal levels for the entire area with lows ranging from the
mid 40s in our most sheltered valleys in the east to mid 50 along
the thermal belt. Western valley locations will also tend to
remain mixed out to an extent, arresting the sharp drop off
typically experience under more ideal radiative conditions. In
addition, there will be a noticeable surge in surface moisture
through the day Sunday, as dew points climb into the 50s behind a
passing warm front lifting northward across the area. No
precipitation is expected with this feature.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
The unseasonably mild early November weather pattern continues to
dominate eastern Kentucky through the long-term as daily record
highs are likely to be challenged on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.
The 02/12z model suite continues to be in good agreement at the
start of the period on Monday morning. A strong ~590 dam ridge
initially resides along/off the east coast of Florida with an
upper-level ridge axis stretching northward from the high to over
the Hudson Bay. Surface high pressure associated with the
500H ridge/high sprawls from the eastern foothills of the
Appalachians to over the Western Atlantic. Upstream, a potent
upper level trough extends from the Northern Plains of Canada
southward into upper Rio Grande Valley. This chilly trough is
bounded on the east by surface cold front extending from northern
Ontario down to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Further upstream, a
potent northern Pacific 500H shortwave trough is diving into
British Columbia and the Olympic Peninsula.
As the upper level features slowly translate west-east, the
aforementioned surface high to our east and cold front to our west
will lead to modestly strong pressure surface pressure gradient and
southerly return flow across the CWA on Monday and Tuesday. This
will lead to gusty breeze especially on Tuesday when gusts could
exceed 25 mph at exposed locations. In addition to the breeze,
850 mb temperatures climbing to 12C or a little warmer and deep
mixing should support temperature nearing or exceeding daily
records on Tuesday.
By late Tuesday, the 500H ridge axis will have shifted largely
off the Eastern Seaboard. The western CONUS trough will be
rapidly dampening as it moves out onto the Plains and the north
Pacific shortwave carves out a new trough/upper low over the
Desert Southwest. Due to the loss of its upper level support, the
cold front drifts to a stall over the Ohio Valley by late
Wednesday and likely lingers over the region on Thursday. Models
disagree on how quickly that new 500H low ejects east of the
Rockies and that will impact whether the stalled front lifts back
north in response to lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies or
simply sags south of the Ohio Valley as high pressure drifts from
the Midwest to eastern CONUS. The majority of ensemble solutions
favor the latter solution which would allow a drier air mass to
seep across the forecast area on Friday. More uncertainty arises
heading into the weekend as tropical activity potentially
traverses the Gulf of Mexico and the southwestern closed low
begins a decisive trek east of the Rockies.
In sensible terms, look for mostly to partly cloudy skies on Monday
and Tuesday with temperatures rising well above normal levels.
Forecast highs range in the mid 70s on Monday and mainly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Tuesday's daily record high of
79F at both London and Jackson is in danger of being exceeded. In
addition, southerly winds will become rather breezy, with gusts
of 10 to 20 mph on forecast on Monday afternoon and 15 to 25 mph
on Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances rise from the northwest Tuesday
evening, mainly after sunset. The maximum 24-hour probabilities
for at least 0.1 inch occur from 7 PM EST Tuesday to 7 PM EST
Wednesday and now range from 40% in far eastern Pike County up to
80% over the Daniel Boone National Forest/westward. Lower rain
chances linger Wednesday night and Thursday with the front nearby.
The official forecast still retains a small chance of showers on
Friday, but that may need to be removed by later shifts if the
drier solutions remain favored. A slow cooling trend is also
forecast with highs "only" in the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Friday, (a solid 10 degrees above normal). Nighttime lows mainly
in the 50s to lower 60s are forecast through Thursday night with
more widespread 40s possible on Friday night. Rain chances
increase again on Saturday as the deeper moisture is pulled back
north ahead of the next storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
Expecting VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Fog
and stratus that plagued southeast-eastern portions of the area
this morning has finally lifted and dissipated in total. Besides
reformation of mainly river valley fog again tonight, which is not
expected to impact any terminals at this time, there will only be
some passing cirrus of varying thickness to contend with through
the period. Winds are expected to be light and variable, at 5 kts
or less with a tendency to flow out of the east-southeast.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 5:20 PM EDT---------------
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