IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 2:52 AM EDT679
FXUS63 KIWX 010652
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions will persist through Saturday.
- Rain is possible at times Sunday through Tuesday with the best
chances in northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
Thermal trough currently settling into the area with 850mb temps
around 0C in our north to almost 5C in our south. Overall neutral
thermal advection expected during the day today with afternoon highs
in the low/mid 50s. Moisture-laden subsidence inversion amid cool,
cyclonic low level flow will scatter out by later today as high
pressure and drier air slowly build into the area. Cloud-bearing
layer is actually very thin this morning given low inversion heights
and dry surface conditions. This will prevent any lake effect precip
despite 850mb delta-T's of 15C. Expect mostly sunny skies everywhere
by the late afternoon. Lows tonight dip into the low 30s with mostly
clear skies and light winds. WAA slowly ramps back up Sat afternoon
as low level ridge axis shifts east. Highs should rebound to around
60F.
Rain chances return to the area Sun-Tue as a large trough develops
over the western CONUS yielding deep SW flow over the Midwest. Still
some uncertainty how far east the baroclinic zone sets up with our
area on the eastern fringes of better convergence/fgen. Initial warm
front/theta-e surge arriving during the day Sunday likely to clip at
least our western half with some rain but will likely be a break Sun
night into Mon as better forcing focuses along leading edge of
trough axis to our west. Better rain chances don't arrive until Tue
when (weakening) trough/cold front finally sweep through our area.
Will continue to try to massage NBM PoP's accordingly which are far
too broadbrushed with categorical values. Best chances will be in
our far W/NW with SE zones likely seeing very little total rain.
Even in our far NW, confidence in a long duration of soaking rain is
not high. Dry weather returns Wed/Thu but will be watching another
potential system ejecting out of the southwest CONUS toward next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
Low clouds and gusty winds continue to linger behind a cold
front that passed through yesterday evening. Ceilings have been
around 3000 to 3500 ft over the past few hours; there is an 70%
chance for MVFR ceilings at both KFWA and KSBN overnight so I
wouldn't be surprised if ceilings drop to about 2500 to 3000 ft
or so before daybreak today. Winds will remain breezy out of
the west for the next few hours with gusts up to 25 kts possible
before 10Z. Despite residual moisture at the surface, elevated
winds and lingering cloud cover will keep any development of fog
at bay this morning. Winds will start to diminish to less than
10 kts after sunrise, with a shift from west to northwest by the
afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 2:52 AM EDT---------------
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