IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 9:39 PM EDT777
FXUS63 KIWX 010139
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
939 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong wind gusts will continue to diminish in magnitude
during the overnight hours.
- Next chance for showers and an isolated storm late Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
A few lingering showers will persist over next hour or two
across extreme southeast portions of the forecast area in
association with the departing cold front. Otherwise, no
measurable precip is expected for remainder of the night as a
mid level dry slot overspreads the area. Steep low level lapse
rates under cold advection regime will allow for a few more
hours of 35+ mph gusts across far north/northwest locations.
Slight lowering of inversion heights overnight and gradual
waning of magnitudes of low level winds, should allow for
gradual diminishment in gusts during the overnight hours.
Previous forecast has trends captured well, and main item for
evening update was to keep gusts up a bit longer late this
evening following observational trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Intense upper low bringing snow to parts of MN will accelerate out
into sern ON tonight as cold front surges ewd. Broad but decaying
area of light rain overhead in association with prefrontal trough
will fizzle ewd into wrn OH while narrow, broken cold frontal
rainband pivots across the area this aftn with gusty sw winds
behind the front for this evening.
Cool and dry through Sat ahead of next sys deepening invof the srn
Rockies. This sys ejects out into the plains late Mon and then
shears newd into the nrn lakes late Tue, track similar to last
several systems. Rapid uptick in warm advection in tandem with
leading return moisture should foster shower development by Sun aftn
far west yet no slam dunk as wrn flank of persistent ridge is slow
to retreat esp given upper sys track well nw of the area. Will make
some amends to overtly generous pop blended guidance early Sun into
early Mon as warm sector becomes established across the OH
valley with highs back into the 70s Mon. Thereafter weakening
and poorly timed cold front washes east Tue with some lingering
showers.
Rest of the period through into next weekend dry, cool and quiet as
broad high pressure ridges in across the Great Lakes and wrn OH
valley.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
A strong upper level short wave trough across north central
Wisconsin will continue to lift northeast through the remainder
of the overnight hours. Associated cold front boundary has
pushed east of the terminals, marked by a wind shift to the
west-southwest. Low level lapse rates will remain steep
overnight but strong deep layer subsidence developing overnight
should lower inversion heights slightly with an expected
continued gradual loss in magnitude of higher gusts into the
overnight. Low level baroclinic zone will continue to shift
across northern Indiana and stall across central Indiana late
tonight. Mid level dry slot will continue to overspread northern
Indiana this evening, but presence of this low level thermal
trough and subsidence/frontal inversion locking in some low
level moisture should support cigs in the 2000-3500 foot range
through early Friday. By mid-late morning Friday, some much
drier low level air and diurnal mixing should tend to scatter
low clouds, but confidence remains low on timing of this
scattering and southward extent of low cloud cigs.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 9:39 PM EDT---------------
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