JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 1:51 AM EDT033
FXUS63 KJKL 020551 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
151 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend; near-record
breaking temperatures are possible Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
Valley fog is more extensive than forecast for locations more than
a tier or two north of the VA and TN borders. Valley fog was
present in valleys as far north as the vicinity of the Mtn Pkwy.
More fog was added grids with some dense valley fog also used
toward dawn for the southern two tiers of counties near the VA
border. Some valley locations near and north of the Mtn Pkwy were
at or below forecast lows, so hourly T and min T in those areas
were lowered a couple of degrees.
UPDATE Issued at 1025 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
No major changes to this update as forecast still seems to be well
on track. Did do some updates to the cloud cover for the evening
and overnight while doing the TAF forecast earlier. There are
still a few clouds showing up on the satellite in the far
southeast, which seems in line with the updates earlier this
evening. The one thing noted was that the temperatures do seem to
be dropping a bit faster than expected in a few locations. Based
on the rate of change, went ahead and made some very minor tweaks
to overnight lows in a couple places, including the Quicksand
Mesonet here near the office. Will need to continue to monitor
temperatures heading into the overnight for any more adjustments.
Will also be interesting to see how fog develops and if that will
make any impacts. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. Again, overall changes were quite minor and a new text
forecast package is not needed as a result.
UPDATE Issued at 631 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
Forecast is well on track thus far in the evening. Loaded in the
latest observations to make sure the near term grids were on track
with the current conditions, which only resulted in minor changes.
Clouds continue to exit the state this evening, which matches up
well so far in the forecast, but will continue to monitor and may
make some changes throughout the evening to better grasp the
ongoing trends. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. The changes were not great enough to warrant any new
forecast text packages being sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
The latest surface analysis has been toned down compared to
yesterday at this time. Surface high pressure has firmly established
itself over much of the central CONUS allowing for clear skies
across the US. Locally, the area is slowly emerging from cold
frontal passage as low clouds and scattered showers are still
occurring across the far southeastern counties along the WV/VA
border. The rest of the CWA is mostly clear skies as high pressure
continues to nudge into the region. As a result of the clearing
skies, temperatures have climbed into the upper-50s to lower-60s;
whereas, areas under the clouds have only climbed into the low to
mid-50s. Unfortunately, those area are likely seeing their highs now
as the window for clearing and warming up a few degrees is rapidly
closing.
Tonight, high pressure will continue to move into the region as
upper-level height rises attributed to upper-level ridge building
will exist overhead. This will usher mostly clear skies overnight
which could lead to development of river valley fog. However, if the
passing cirrus deck is thicker than guidance suggests, fog potential
could be severely limited. Also with the high shifting into the
region, northeasterly flow around the high will bring overnight lows
down into the upper-30s for the Bluegrass and valleys of the CWA
with upper-30s to low-40s for the ridgetops. High pressure will
persist through the day Saturday with increasing temperatures
building back into the region. Highs for Saturday are forecast to
climb back into the low-60s to upper-60s from north to south
respectively.
Saturday night will be a continuation of the temperatures seen
Friday night as lows in the low to mid-40s are expected in the
Bluegrass and river valleys with lows in the mid to upper-40s and
possibly a low 50 mark for the ridgetops. However, to the west, a
longwave trough is forecast to move onshore Saturday night and
quickly traverse across the Great Basin into the Central Plains by
early Sunday morning. Once leeside cyclogenesis takes place, the
baroclinic zone left behind from Friday's cold front will transform
into a warm front that'll gradually lift through the CWA sometime
Sunday afternoon but primarily in the long-term forecast window.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
An unseasonably mild weather pattern will persist through the
long-term period. The 01/12z model suite is in good agreement at
the start of the period on Sunday morning, showing a ridge axis
extending from the Florida Peninsula northwestward across the Ohio
Valley, Upper Great Lakes and on into southwest Nunavut. Meanwhile,
a deep trough axis extends from the Mackenzie River Valley
southward across the Rockies and into northwest Mexico. At the
surface, high pressure is departing into the Northeast CONUS,
while developing southerly flow is pushing the previously stalled
boundary back northward across the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi
valleys.
That boundary surges north of our area during the day on Sunday,
allowing warm temperatures to flood back across eastern Kentucky
through Tuesday. Moisture levels will be on the rise as well, but
the better moisture return has been further west in recent model
runs. This has led to the removal of mentionable PoPs on Sunday,
though an uptick in warm air advection cloud cover is still
expected. The upper level trough ejects passes over the Rockies
early in the week and sends a cold front racing eastward as the
ridge axis aloft shifts off the Atlantic Seaboard. A tightening
surface pressure gradient between the surface cold front and
departing high will lead to increasingly gusty breeze Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. Temperatures at 850mb reaching 12 to 14C on
Tuesday along with deep mixing will support near-record to record-
setting daily high temperatures approaching 80F at many spots on
Tuesday afternoon.
Model agreement has improved for the mid-to-late week timeframe
compared to 24 hours ago. As the cold front closes in on eastern
Kentucky on Tuesday, its parent trough rapidly dampens while
potent vorticity energy dives from the North Pacific into the
Northwest CONUS and carves out a new upper level trough further
west. With the loss of upper level support, the surface cold front
coasts to a crawl and hangs up over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
QPF over our area from this front has diminished sharply in
recent model runs. The 01/12z LREF 24-hour probabilities for a
wetting rain (0.1 inch or greater) were 50 to 80%, about 10% lower
than the 31/12z suite. Event QPF through Thursday now ranges from
around 0.10 inch east of US-23 to around 0.30 inch west of the
Daniel Boone National Forest.
The western upper level trough closes off as a upper level low
over the Southwest US later in the week while broad ridging
becomes re-established over the Southeastern CONUS/Ohio Valley.
The stalled surface boundary waffles and slowly pivots to more of
a west-east orientation as a surface high drifts from the
Northern Plains to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Clockwise flow
around the high pressure may help push the remnants of the frontal
boundary south of the eastern Kentucky Coalfields on Friday; but,
by that time, the post-frontal air mass will have moderated
significantly, likely leaving temperatures still running at above
normal levels for early November.
In sensible terms, look for variable cloud cover and a warming trend
from Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday highs are forecast to range
mainly in the mid to upper 70s before further warming to the upper
70s to lower 80s by Tuesday. Nighttime lows are forecast to range
form the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday night and in the mid 50s
to lower 60s on Tuesday night. Southerly breezes also return with
wind gusts becoming stronger each afternoon through Tuesday when
they are expected to peak between 20 and 30 mph. Rain chances rise
from the northwest late Tuesday and Tuesday evening and peak late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday at high chance to likely levels.
Thereafter, PoPs gradually diminish to only a slight chance by
Friday. Temperatures trend cooler as well but are likely to still
be at or above seasonal averages on Friday -- normal highs for
November 8th range from 57 over the northern foothills to 62 near
Lake Cumberland.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
Sfc and upper level high pressure will largely bring VFR and
light winds to the period over the next 24 hours as only some high
and perhaps mid level clouds may pass from time to time. The
exceptions will be valley fog through about 13Z to 14Z, where
reductions down to IFR and even some LIFR and VLIFR are
anticipated in valleys, though TAF sites should not be affected.
Valley fog may again develop during the last 2 to 3 hours of the
period, with some MVFR reductions possible between 03Z and 06Z.
Winds will average at no more than 5KT between north and east
throughout the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 1:51 AM EDT---------------
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