LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 6:55 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...122
FXUS64 KLIX 311155
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
655 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Happy Halloween all you ghouls, ghosts, and witches and even
though it is Oct 31st it is still going to be a warm one across
the region. The one difference today from practically the rest of
the month is the possibility of rain. However, pretty sure many
people would have rather the rain not occur today especially
during trick or treating this evening.
Main forecast questions are will it rain the next two days, how
much will we really get, and will there be any strong/severe
storms. So the answers in the short short version, yes probably, not
enough to make a difference, and not likely. Ok now a little
deeper look into the forecast. The ridge dominating the
southeastern CONUS is already being suppressed to the southeast
as a strong s/w continues to move into the upper MS Valley. That
said the ridge will hold pretty strong across the Gulf and into
the Atlantic just off the southeast CONUS coast. This is going to
lead to a very deep WSW flow aloft across the central and almost
entire eastern CONUS. This also is going to lead to the cold front
approaching the area to really struggle to push south today and
tonight with it likely hanging up and stalling over the Lower MS
Valley just north of the CWA. In addition to the front not making
it to the area the better mid lvl support will remain north of the
region. Both of these don't bode well for widespread convection
and heavy rain across the area. However, there will be some slight
LL convergence across the western half of the CWA, increase in
moisture, slightly lower hghts and just momentum of the convection
currently moving into the ARKLATEX that should lead to decent
converge of rain today. PWs near 2" alone should really aid in
rain development. In addition upper lvl diffluence will be over
the area along with some instability across the western portions
of the CWA leading to possible thunderstorms but as convection
moves towards I-55 and/or develops along and east of I-55 the
instability will wane quickly.
Rain will continue to be possible across western portions of the
CWA Friday but the eastern/southeastern half will struggle as the
ridge tries to start rebuilding in from the southeast. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
The models in the extended portion of the fcst overall aren't
too bad except for one thing and that is the possible tropical
development. Not many models or ensembles are bullish in the
tropical development in the western Caribbean getting into the
Gulf and with that we will not put a lot of weight into that
scenario. Even if a system gets into the Gulf the setup would
suggest the main concerns would be east if not well east of the
area. Other than that it looks like a stout mid lvl ridge set up
east of the southeastern and FL coast extending west into the
Gulf while a deep L/W trough develops over the western CONUS.
Overall the pattern remains fairly similar for the area with deep
WSW to SW flow aloft. This likely keeps any strong cold fronts
from pushing through the area next week with the region remaining
on the warm side of the forecast. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Most terminals are in MVFr or VFR status due to low cigs. Most
temrinals are sitting around 2-2500 ft while BTR is around 1200.
These cigs should improve over the next few hours before rain
starts to impact the region. A few very light showers may develop
across the western half of the CWA around midday but expect to see
greater convective coverage this afternoon. Starting out west and
slowly expanding east. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Surface analysis shows a stout ridge over much of the Gulf and
Atlantic coast. A cold front was stretching SSW from the upper MS
Valley and into TX. This will keep the southeasterly flow
over the region with moderate to strong winds, especially over
the outer waters through the day. Small Craft conditions in the
offshore waters will not relax enough for those headlines to fall
off until tonight. Even after that, elevated onshore flow will
persist for the remainder of the forecast period as high pressure
remains centered east of the area. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 67 81 63 / 60 40 50 10
BTR 86 71 86 67 / 60 40 60 10
ASD 85 68 84 65 / 30 20 30 10
MSY 85 71 84 69 / 40 20 30 10
GPT 83 68 83 65 / 20 10 10 0
PQL 86 68 86 64 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552-
555.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ570-572-
575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ572-575-
577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 6:55 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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