JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 3:15 PM EDT982
FXUS63 KJKL 011915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend; near-record
breaking temperatures are possible Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
The latest surface analysis has been toned down compared to
yesterday at this time. Surface high pressure has firmly established
itself over much of the central CONUS allowing for clear skies
across the US. Locally, the area is slowly emerging from cold
frontal passage as low clouds and scattered showers are still
occurring across the far southeastern counties along the WV/VA
border. The rest of the CWA is mostly clear skies as high pressure
continues to nudge into the region. As a result of the clearing
skies, temperatures have climbed into the upper-50s to lower-60s;
whereas, areas under the clouds have only climbed into the low to
mid-50s. Unfortunately, those area are likely seeing their highs now
as the window for clearing and warming up a few degrees is rapidly
closing.
Tonight, high pressure will continue to move into the region as
upper-level height rises attributed to upper-level ridge building
will exist overhead. This will usher mostly clear skies overnight
which could lead to development of river valley fog. However, if the
passing cirrus deck is thicker than guidance suggests, fog potential
could be severely limited. Also with the high shifting into the
region, northeasterly flow around the high will bring overnight lows
down into the upper-30s for the Bluegrass and valleys of the CWA
with upper-30s to low-40s for the ridgetops. High pressure will
persist through the day Saturday with increasing temperatures
building back into the region. Highs for Saturday are forecast to
climb back into the low-60s to upper-60s from north to south
respectively.
Saturday night will be a continuation of the temperatures seen
Friday night as lows in the low to mid-40s are expected in the
Bluegrass and river valleys with lows in the mid to upper-40s and
possibly a low 50 mark for the ridgetops. However, to the west, a
longwave trough is forecast to move onshore Saturday night and
quickly traverse across the Great Basin into the Central Plains by
early Sunday morning. Once leeside cyclogenesis takes place, the
baroclinic zone left behind from Friday's cold front will transform
into a warm front that'll gradually lift through the CWA sometime
Sunday afternoon but primarily in the long-term forecast window.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 5:03 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
The surface high pressure system responsible for Saturday's quieter
and cooler weather will slide into New England on Sunday. Aloft, a
subtropical ridge over the Southeastern CONUS will build towards the
Mid-Atlantic while a deepening trough ejects from the Rockies into
the Great Plains. Together, these features will set up deep
southerly/southwesterly flow over Eastern Kentucky for the first
half of the next work week.
This pattern shift will initially be marked by the passage of a warm
front on Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of the front, winds will
be out of the east and the airmass will be much drier and more
stable. Behind it, stronger southerly winds will begin to advect
warmer/moister air into the area. Therefore, southern locations are
forecast to be about 10 degrees warmer (lows near 50) than northern
ones (lows near 40) on Saturday night. Once this boundary pushes
through on Sunday, highs will easily warm into the mid to upper 70s.
This is about 10-15 degrees warmer than climatological averages. A
few isentropically-lifted showers appear possible across our
northwestern counties on Sunday, and if the associated cloud
coverage lingers around longer than expected, Sunday's highs could
under-perform the current forecast.
As the aforementioned upper level troughing pushes east and
approaches the Ohio River valley, the flow responsible for these
warm and moist conditions is expected to strengthen. Temperatures on
both Monday and Tuesday will remain much warmer than normal. Despite
increasing cloud coverage, efficient warm air advection will allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s on Monday. Overnight,
Monday's clouds will mitigate the effectiveness of radiative cooling
processes, thus reducing conventional ridge-valley temperature
splits. Lows will be near 60 degrees across the entire area on
Monday night. Guidance shows the potential for a bit more sun on
Tuesday, and portions of the forecast area will likely hit 80
degrees as a result. The record high temperature at both our Jackson
and London climate sites for November 5th is 79 degrees, so we will
once again be on record watch early next week.
On Tuesday night, a cold front will approach the area and usher in a
much cooler airmass. Given the antecedent warmth and moisture
return, this particular system appears poised to bring highly
beneficial rain to the area. PoPs range from 60 to 70 percent across
the entire forecast area on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as
the front moves through. Model ensembles suggest that PWATs could
rise to nearly double their climatological norms immediately ahead
of this front, which gives credence to these likely PoPs, even at
this temporal range. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures,
with afternoon highs returning to the seasonably appropriate upper
60s for Wednesday and beyond. Long range forecast guidance generally
depicts a return to quasi-zonal flow aloft by late next week, but
the persistent southeastern subtropical ridge may block this front
from fully clearing our forecast area. If this solution comes to
fruition, cloud coverage and shower chances may stick around through
the end of the week. However, confidence in this is low at this
temporal range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
Terminals are slowly improving toward VFR with this TAF issuance.
Currently, KSYM is VFR but KLOZ and KSME will improve to VFR in
the next hour or so with KJKL and KSJS to follow suit by 22Z.
Skies will remain mostly clear through the period but passing high
clouds may filter across the area overnight. This may have an
impact on valley fog; therefore, opted to go with marginal MVFR
for valley fog at KSME, KLOZ and KSYM from 09Z through 13Z. Once
fog burns off, all TAFs will return to VFR as SKC and light and
variable winds will exist for the remainder of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 3:15 PM EDT---------------
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