JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:19 AM EDT636
FXUS63 KJKL 011119
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
719 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning with
the approach of a cold front.
- Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend; near-record
breaking temperatures are possible Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
Cold front tracks east across the region through today, but
remnants of the front hang up along or just north of the
Tennessee border tonight, before beginning to nudge north Saturday
as a stationary or warm front. Upper ridging builds to the west
and moves over the area by late Saturday.
Light rain and clouds will gradually diminish in coverage through
the day as the better upper level energy lifts out to the northeast.
With minimal cold advection behind the front, highs will remain
mild, only returning to near normal to slightly above normal
readings for early November.
With the remnants of the front stalling near or just north of the TN
border tonight, expect a tight gradient in cloud cover and
temperatures tonight, with mild lows to the south of the front and
cooler temperatures to the north. Lows may range as high as 50
degrees near the TN border, while lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
are likely north of KY Highway 80.
Temperatures begin to slowly rebound back above normal Saturday
under mostly sunny skies, with mid 60s north to lower to mid 70s
south of the stationary front near/along the TN border.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 5:03 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
The surface high pressure system responsible for Saturday's quieter
and cooler weather will slide into New England on Sunday. Aloft, a
subtropical ridge over the Southeastern CONUS will build towards the
Mid-Atlantic while a deepening trough ejects from the Rockies into
the Great Plains. Together, these features will set up deep
southerly/southwesterly flow over Eastern Kentucky for the first
half of the next work week.
This pattern shift will initially be marked by the passage of a warm
front on Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of the front, winds will
be out of the east and the airmass will be much drier and more
stable. Behind it, stronger southerly winds will begin to advect
warmer/moister air into the area. Therefore, southern locations are
forecast to be about 10 degrees warmer (lows near 50) than northern
ones (lows near 40) on Saturday night. Once this boundary pushes
through on Sunday, highs will easily warm into the mid to upper 70s.
This is about 10-15 degrees warmer than climatological averages. A
few isentropically-lifted showers appear possible across our
northwestern counties on Sunday, and if the associated cloud
coverage lingers around longer than expected, Sunday's highs could
under-perform the current forecast.
As the aforementioned upper level troughing pushes east and
approaches the Ohio River valley, the flow responsible for these
warm and moist conditions is expected to strengthen. Temperatures on
both Monday and Tuesday will remain much warmer than normal. Despite
increasing cloud coverage, efficient warm air advection will allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s on Monday. Overnight,
Monday's clouds will mitigate the effectiveness of radiative cooling
processes, thus reducing conventional ridge-valley temperature
splits. Lows will be near 60 degrees across the entire area on
Monday night. Guidance shows the potential for a bit more sun on
Tuesday, and portions of the forecast area will likely hit 80
degrees as a result. The record high temperature at both our Jackson
and London climate sites for November 5th is 79 degrees, so we will
once again be on record watch early next week.
On Tuesday night, a cold front will approach the area and usher in a
much cooler airmass. Given the antecedent warmth and moisture
return, this particular system appears poised to bring highly
beneficial rain to the area. PoPs range from 60 to 70 percent across
the entire forecast area on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as
the front moves through. Model ensembles suggest that PWATs could
rise to nearly double their climatological norms immediately ahead
of this front, which gives credence to these likely PoPs, even at
this temporal range. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures,
with afternoon highs returning to the seasonably appropriate upper
60s for Wednesday and beyond. Long range forecast guidance generally
depicts a return to quasi-zonal flow aloft by late next week, but
the persistent southeastern subtropical ridge may block this front
from fully clearing our forecast area. If this solution comes to
fruition, cloud coverage and shower chances may stick around through
the end of the week. However, confidence in this is low at this
temporal range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2024
IFR and low-MVFR conditions in light rain and drizzle/mist will
slowly improve to VFR conditions through the morning, with VFR
conditions expected thereafter through the remainder of the TAF
period. Fog development is possible primarily in the river valleys
tonight, and could potentially impact KLOZ and/or KSME according
to some statistical model guidance. This potential will need to be
evaluated further with future TAF product issuances.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:19 AM EDT---------------
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