LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:47 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...986
FXUS64 KLIX 282047
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Another "summer light" kind of day across the region with most
locations warming into the middle and upper 80s out there and it
wouldn't be impossible for a few 90F obs to be achieved prior to
losing daytime heating. Going into tonight there will be a gradual
pattern shift. As the atmosphere decouples, winds will again
relax, however, a bit better quality low level moisture is
starting to filter into the region. Because of the moisture,
radiative processes (as we saw last night) there will be a shot at
more dense fog. SREF pings along and north of I10/12. Stat and
mesoscale deterministic guidance is showing at least some signal
for fog again tonight so decided there was enough confidence to
hoist the dense fog advisory again right along and north of
I10/12. Of course depending on how the lower levels evolve through
the night there could be changes to the advisory.
Going into Tuesday the low level flow begins to increase as the
1030mb high continues to slide eastward allowing for pressure
gradient to tighten over the area. This would put the brakes on
the fog potential despite increasing the lower level moisture.
Speaking of better quality low level moisture, there is a weak
signal for a streamer shower or two to develop across the Gulf
waters or MS Sound, especially during DMax periods, but for now
the QPF signal is quite weak and naturally lower confidence given
the fact that subsidence would limit very much in terms of
vertical growth. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Onshore flow will develop on Wednesday and persist through the
week as surface high becomes established over the western
Atlantic. The increase in low level flow will limit the fog
potential despite the influx of better quality low level moisture.
That said, with the influx of low level moisture, cannot rule out
a few marine streamer showers impacting the immediate LA/MS Gulf
coast during the early morning hours. This will be the exception
rather than the rule so overall POPs should remain on the lower
side.
The area will eventually find itself under a more active
southwesterly flow aloft as an H5 ridge develops over the Gulf of
Mexico. Upstream, a cold front tries to march south and east
toward our region later this week and into the weekend, however,
the high will block this feature. Though on Thursday it could get
close enough to help generate a few showers with the best rain
chances residing along and west of the I55 corridor. Friday,
cannot rule out a stray shower or two across the same areas, but
the odds are significantly lower as the front begins to lift north
away from the area.
Outside of Thursday, a continuation of warm (summer light, again)
conditions and overall dry weather is anticipated through the
start of November. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Now that the fog has cleared, VFR conditions have developed.
Expect these conditions to last up until around 08z Tuesday where
more fog will likely develop especially terminals along and north
of I10/12. IFR or lower will be possible around sunrise, but
should improve quickly through the mid morning hours. Otherwise,
surface winds will remain light and variable up until the end of
the cycle where east or southeasterly flow will begin to increase.
(Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
The surface high will continue to move east through midweek. This
will keep easterly winds and eventually southeasterly winds
through the forecast period. Winds will rise to around 15-20kt
toward the middle of the week and no real rain chances until Thu
or Fri with the exception of a passing shower well offshore. With
the winds and seas buildings, cannot rule out the need for SCA or
SCEC, especially over the open Gulf Waters. (Frye/TE)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 66 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 65 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 68 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 66 82 67 82 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-
077.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF/TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:47 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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