LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:56 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...809
FXUS64 KLIX 261956
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
256 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Through the short term the region will remain under a dry
northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface we will be watching a very
weak frontal boundary try to move southward toward our region but
hold up just shy of our CWFA. Temperatures during this time should
remain at or slightly above average. Outside of temperatures the
only concern would be additional fog concerns. We will allow the
evening shift to take another look, but another dense fog advisory
may need to be issued west of I55 corridor tonight. The signal from
there increases a bit more going into Sunday night as the cold front
again stalls relatively close allowing for low level moisture
pooling to set up. This along with radiative processes could lead to
again an additional need for fog headlines as we round out the short
term period. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Going into the long term surface high pressure begins to spread east
over the Mid Atlantic. This will allow surface winds to remain
easterly and eventually veer to a more southeasterly direction. As
this occurs low level moisture advection will begin. Temperatures
early to mid week will remain above average as an H5 ridge remains
overhead. However, the slight change here is that with the influx
of better quality low level moisture, some cloudiness may develop
and perhaps a shower or two will be possible beyond the midweek
timeframe, especially over the marine environment. That said
upstream a cold front will begin to move south and eastward toward
our region. The globals are consistent only in having this feature,
but strength and progression aren't being agreed upon as the GFS
stalls the feature to our north and the ECM actually stalls it over
or closer to our CWFA. Regardless, am a bit more comfortable with
the solutions within the globals to keep some mentionable POPs later
in the medium range. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Mostly VFR conditions expected outside of more fog for terminals
generally along and west of the I55 corridor. Here IFR VIS will be
possible just before sunrise, but should quickly improve by 13-14z
Sunday. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable through this
cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
The surface high stalled over the central Gulf Coast will begin to
spread east early next week. Ridging will remain across the region
with mostly easterly or southeasterly surface winds through the
period. Winds will generally be favorable early on, but gradually
increase as pressure gradient increases mid to late week with
cautionary headlines or perhaps even small craft advisory thresholds
being met in the far outer waters mid to late week. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 61 86 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 58 90 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:56 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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