JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:55 PM EDT325
FXUS63 KJKL 312355
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening
into tonight with the approach of a cold front.
- Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend; near-record
breaking temperatures are possible on Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Initial line of showers is just entering our forecast area this
evening, tracking west to east and has held together a little
better than earlier runs of the hrrr suggested. Based on current
trends in shower activity and regional radar, increased PoPs
across our western zones through the evening. Still dampened
activity as it moves eastward through our eastern zones during the
evening, but with a resurgance in activity after midnight over
those areas further east. Overall it would appear everyone should
see some rainfall accumulations, though exact totals are still
uncertain, but would seem to be generally between a tenth or so
and around a third of an inch, possibly up to a half inch for
locations along and west of I-75. In general the inherited
forecast had this covered well, with main changes to the forecast
being made within the first few hours of the evening period to
better capture most recent trends. Updated zones and grids have
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Current surface analysis is rather busy across the entire CONUS. The
most important feature is a surface low situated over Wisconsin.
From this low, a stationary boundary is extended eastward across the
St. Lawrence Seaway. Also, a cold front is extending southwest from
the low all the way down to the Texas Gulf Coast. Locally, increased
cloud cover ahead of the cold front is building into the area with
breezy southwesterly winds around 20 to 25 mph. Also, due to
southwesterly flow, temperatures are climbing into the upper-70s to
low-80s across eastern Kentucky. At the JKL Weather Office, the
previous high temperature record for today has been broken. These
record breaking high temperatures will continue to exist over the
area today before that aforementioned cold front brings increasing
rain chances this evening and overnight.
The approaching cold front is currently moving into far western
Kentucky at this moment but gusty showers are slowly working across
central Kentucky. Over the next few hours, those showers will
increase in coverage and move into the JKL CWA. Along with these
showers, isolated thunderstorms are possible but mainly along and
west of the I-75 corridor. While some instability exists in these
locations, severe weather isn't expected. Showers will continue to
be possible through the overnight hours as the front quickly moves
through the area. Showers will begin to dissipate from northwest to
southeast through Friday morning before the front exits Friday
afternoon. Post-frontal high pressure will build back into the area
ushering near-seasonal, albeit still slightly above average
temperatures, back into the area for the remainder of the forecast
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
The 31/12z model suite is in good agreement to start the forecast
period on Saturday morning. An elongated ~589dam ridge extends
from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward to over Bermuda, resulting
in a quasi-zonal pattern over the Ohio Valley initially. At the
surface, there is an quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the
Tennessee Valley through Lower Mississippi Valley and then
northwestward into the Central High Plains. High pressure resides
north of this front over the Great Lakes. Looking upstream, a
trough extends from British Columbia southward through the West
Coast states to offshore the Baja California Peninsula.
During the first 48 hours of the forecast period, the upper level
trough will cross the Rockies and deepen while the downstream ridge
will amplify northward toward the Hudson Bay. As the surface,
high pressure shifts to over the Northeast and deep southerly
flow develops between the eastern upper level ridge and western
upper level trough. This will send the surface front surging back
at a warm front on Sunday, ushering in a very mild (12-14C at
850mb) and moist air mass (PWATs approaching or exceeding the 90th
percentile relative to climatology) over eastern Kentucky. The
upper level trough begins to dampen later Monday and Tuesday as it
tries to pivot eastward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated
surface cold front associated with the trough will initially race
through the Plains but then slow and hang up near/over the Ohio
Valley mid-week. Model solutions become increasingly divergent on
the weather pattern at this point as additional energy from the
North Pacific drops in the the trough and renews a deep trough or
closed low over the Central or Western CONUS. Depending upon how
the pattern unfolds, the stalled front could drop southeast of
the area, remain stalled nearby, or lift back north of the area
on Wednesday or Thursday.
In sensible terms, expect a drier day on Saturday amidst weak
northeasterly flow on the southern side of the Great Lakes high
pressure. Temperatures are expected to run slightly above normal
for early November with highs ranging from the mid 60s north of
the Mountain Parkway to the middle 70s in the upper portions of
the Cumberland River valley (e.g Middlesboro and Harlan). One of
or perhaps even the "coolest" night of the period follows Saturday
night with lows forecast to range from near 40 in the northern
hollows to the lower 50s near the Tennessee border and on thermal
belt ridges. Clouds increase later Saturday night and peak on
Sunday/Sunday evening as warm front lift through the area.
Isolated showers are possible with the front, best chances toward
the Bluegrass. Forecast highs range in the lower to upper 70s,
north to south, on Sunday. Very mild temperatures--highs in the
70s to near 80 and lows in the 50s to lower 60s--are expected on
Monday and Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The next
substantial rain chances arrive on Tuesday with the next cold
front but the duration and QPF remains lower confidence due to
model spread. Temperatures are likely to cool closer to normal for
mid-week but specific details are uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Showers and predominant MVFR flight conditions expected through
the overnight period, then improve through the day Friday. A
surface cold front approaches the area, with widespread, but
scattered showers ahead of the front. An initial line of shower
activity has entered eastern Kentucky and will continue to push
eastward, though with some dissipation of activity expected as it
progresses eastward. However, as the surface front enters into the
area during the overnight, additional showers will redevelop,
impacting all of our terminals during the night. CIGS will
gradually drop as the front enters and passes through the region.
FROPA is expected at KSYM around 08Z, KSME, KLOZ, and KJKL around
09Z, and KSJS around 10Z. Winds will be southerly, 5-10 kts with
some gusty winds up to 25 kts with the initial line of showers.
Winds shift out of the west for about an hour after the initial
line of showers, then turn southerly until the surface front
passes through the area during the early morning hours. Northwest
winds between 5-10 kts are expected immediately behind the surface
front before going variable at 5kts or less through the late
afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:55 PM EDT---------------
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