MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:22 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...414
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
322 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
The stratus deck that streamed into south-central Alabama this
morning is long gone and temperatures continue to rebound. Most
spots have risen into the mid to low 80s this afternoon with West
Mobile being the warmest spot at 87 and Greenville being the
coolest spot at 73 (thanks to the earlier cloud deck) as of 19z.
The rest of today's forecast remains on track as a subtle cold front
remains draped across parts of south-central Alabama (draped from
northwest to southeast). Patchy, light fog is possible overnight
across southeast Mississippi with some guidance indicating slightly
higher probabilities of dense fog in the pre-dawn hours across parts
of Perry and Stone Counties. It's not a slam dunk dense fog event,
but we may need a targeted Dense Fog Advisory for a few counties in
the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday.
The shallow cool-ish, dry layer of air sitting across south-central
Alabama today will seep further west into the entire area by
tomorrow. HREF guidance indicates that PWATs may drop to below 1
inch across much of the area briefly in the afternoon hours on
Tuesday before quickly rebounding in the evening hours. Don't expect
a massive difference in daytime temperatures on Tuesday as we still
expect highs in the mid to low 80s - just a few degrees cooler than
the past few days.
Beach Note: Given the increasing southeasterly flow over the Gulf
waters, the risk of rip currents increases to a MODERATE RISK
tonight with a HIGH RISK Tuesday and Tuesday night. Surf heights
will also be increasing with 3-4 foot breakers expected on
Tuesday. 07/mb
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
Ridging aloft continues to build over the Southeast on Wednesday,
but eventually gets nudged further east by a potent shortwave trough
cruising across the Plains and Upper Midwest. A few subtle
shortwaves moves overhead in this pattern through Friday with little
fanfare. The surface high over the western Atlantic continues to
spill into the area through this timeframe with strengthening
southeasterly flow. A weak front dives toward the Southeast late in
the week, but begins to stall as it approaches our area. We still
expect the front to stall and wash out northwest of our area late in
the week as it runs up against the surface high. Ahead of the front,
isolated showers are possible on Wednesday across southeast
Mississippi and coastal Alabama with a very small 10-20 POP in our
current forecast. We maintain a 20 POP across southeast Mississippi
and parts of southwest Alabama on Halloween afternoon with the
higher rain chances closer to the front (further northwest of our
area). Ridging builds over the Gulf early in the weekend and spills
back into the region through early next week and the region stays
dry.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains HIGH through at least
Saturday based on the rip current MOS probabilities. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Easterly flow turns southeasterly tonight and gradually increases
to a moderate to occasionally strong through mid-week with
increasing seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required for at
least the offshore Gulf waters by Wednesday with Exercise Caution
headlines across the remainder of the area. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 83 64 82 68 83 64 83 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Pensacola 66 80 69 81 72 81 67 82 / 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 0
Destin 66 81 69 82 70 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 57 84 60 84 62 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
Waynesboro 60 85 59 84 62 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 10 0 20 20 20
Camden 58 83 61 83 62 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
Crestview 58 85 61 86 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:22 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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