JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 3:18 PM EDT417
FXUS63 KJKL 311918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
318 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening
into tonight with the approach of a cold front.
- Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend; near-record
breaking temperatures are possible on Tuesday.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Current surface analysis is rather busy across the entire CONUS. The
most important feature is a surface low situated over Wisconsin.
From this low, a stationary boundary is extended eastward across the
St. Lawrence Seaway. Also, a cold front is extending southwest from
the low all the way down to the Texas Gulf Coast. Locally, increased
cloud cover ahead of the cold front is building into the area with
breezy southwesterly winds around 20 to 25 mph. Also, due to
southwesterly flow, temperatures are climbing into the upper-70s to
low-80s across eastern Kentucky. At the JKL Weather Office, the
previous high temperature record for today has been broken. These
record breaking high temperatures will continue to exist over the
area today before that aforementioned cold front brings increasing
rain chances this evening and overnight.
The approaching cold front is currently moving into far western
Kentucky at this moment but gusty showers are slowly working across
central Kentucky. Over the next few hours, those showers will
increase in coverage and move into the JKL CWA. Along with these
showers, isolated thunderstorms are possible but mainly along and
west of the I-75 corridor. While some instability exists in these
locations, severe weather isn't expected. Showers will continue to
be possible through the overnight hours as the front quickly moves
through the area. Showers will begin to dissipate from northwest to
southeast through Friday morning before the front exits Friday
afternoon. Post-frontal high pressure will build back into the area
ushering near-seasonal, albeit still slightly above average
temperatures, back into the area for the remainder of the forecast
period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Saturday, Gulf moisture surges north into the OK/TX area ahead of a
deepening Western US trough. Generally this will result in light
easterly winds across Eastern Kentucky, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. There may be a slight chance of a shower or two
early Saturday, mainly along and south of KY-80/Hal Rogers
Parkway. Otherwise, dry weather is expected across the area. In
the evening expect partly cloudy skies with lows in the low 40s in
valleys, and upper 40s to low 50s along ridgetops. Increasing
clouds can be expected heading into Sunday morning, with mostly
cloudy skies by sunrise. Showers will move in from the north and
west through the day and winds will shift from easterly in the
morning to out of the south by afternoon. This will lead to highs
in the mid to upper 70s. At this time, showers look to remain
along and north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway, and remain light
in nature. Skies will remain mostly cloudy into the night, leaving
lows up, in the 50s.
Monday and beyond, the Western US trough digs deeper, spilling
into southern NM and AZ with abundant gulf moisture still riding
the boundary between the trough in the west and a negatively
tilted ridge essentially encompassing much of the East Coast.
Showers should avoid most of the forecast area Monday, however
there is still a slight chance of seeing a shower or two along and
north of Interstate 64. Otherwise dry conditions look to prevail.
With southerly winds ahead of a potential cold front, highs will
creep into the upper 70s across eastern Kentucky. Lows will
generally range in the mid 50s in valleys, to upper 50s and lower
60s along ridgetops.
Tuesday is much of the same, with southerly flow surging daytime
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area.
This will bring existing record highs in play, with the daily
records for Jackson the most likely to be threatened, where the
existing daily record is 79 degrees. Models are depicting a cold
front moving through the state later in the day, leading to
showers through Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday winds are
expected to shift to more of a west to northwest wind leading some
to colder highs in the low 70s Wednesday, and mid 60s by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites but south-
southwesterly sustained winds around 10 knots with gusts of 20 to
25 knots are impacting all sites. This will continue over the next
few hours as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will begin to
diminish after 06Z. Over the next few hours, CIGS will continue
to lower into MVFR and remain MVFR through the end of the TAF
window. As the front approaches this evening, showers will
increase across the area and persist through 14Z before
dissipating. Once showers come to an end, terminals are expected
to remain MVFR with light and variable winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 3:18 PM EDT---------------
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