PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 5:38 PM CDT069
FXUS63 KPAH 302238
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front brings wet and stormy weather for
Halloween.
- Dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday, though some PoPs return
as early as Saturday afternoon in SEMO.
- We return to a more active pattern on Sunday through next week
with highs returning to above average.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Warm and breezy conditions continue today as we sit wedged between a
sfc high to the east and a low to the west. Southwest flow
aloft and southerly flow at the sfc along with clear skies is
keeping our temperatures well above average (near record). Highs
today are in the low 80s across the board with overnight lows
expected to be in the mid to upper 60s.
Aloft a broad trof is moving into the Central Plains while the sfc
low heads towards the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending to
the southwest. A line of storms has formed along/ahead of the cold
front and is working its way east. Storms will start to enter SEMO
and western portions of southern IL in the pre-dawn hours tomorrow
(as early as 09Z). Some of these storms may be strong to severe with
the main threats being wind and a possible QLCS tornado or two.
Severe parameters remain marginal though (in line with the Day 1
Marginal Risk from SPC) with 0-6 km bulk shear around 35 kts, 300-
800 J/kg of MUCAPE, and really modest lapse rates.
As storms move through on Thursday we will see some beneficial rain,
the most we've seen since Helene, with around 0.5-1" possible in
spots. SPC does have us in a Day 2 Marginal Risk, so some damaging
wind can't be ruled out, but confidence is lower. As far as a trick-
or-treat forecast goes, most of SEMO and southern IL will be dry by
the evening hours, while southwestern IN, and western KY look to
still be pretty wet through the evening and overnight hours. Storms
look to clear out by 12Z Friday morning. Even with tomorrow's cloud
cover, temperatures will still be above average in the 70s with
overnight lows behind the front in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Sfc high pressure builds in pretty quickly behind the front and
gives us a rather nice day on Friday and Saturday with clear skies
and highs in the 60s on Friday and then 60s and 70s on Saturday.
This will be rather short lived however as we enter southwest flow
aloft on Sunday and resume a more active pattern with warmer
temperatures. As stated, next week we are in a more active pattern
as several disturbances round the trof out west and slide through
the region. NBM brings chances PoPs back to SEMO as early as
Saturday afternoon and by Saturday night we have chance to even
liklies possible. Significant PoPs continue to be present through
the end of the 7-day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
A mostly clear evening sky will yield to increasing clouds and
eventually pcpn as a cold front marches toward the terminals
late tonight and makes passage tmrw. Mid-high level bases will
lower to restricted categories with CIGS by/before daybreak, as
showers and potentially some thunderstorms with restricted
VSBYS accompany the front's entrance. Gusty south winds ahead of
the front will then shift to the west with its passage,
effectively ending pcpn chances during the forecast planning
phase hours of the afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 5:38 PM CDT---------------
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