ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:57 PM EDT795
FXUS61 KILN 301757
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southwesterly flow continues to move through the region, allowing
for unseasonably warm temperatures to continue. Wednesday highs should rise
to nearly twenty degrees above normal with strong southerly winds. The next
chance for precipitation arrives on Thursday as a cold front moves through
the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad surface high pressure system continues to retreat
eastward off the Atlantic coast. This pressure system is
particularly strong, with the center of the high around 1030mb.
Given the combination of a strong surface high and approaching
low pressure from the west, a tight pressure gradient has formed
across the Midwest. In response, southwesterly surface winds
will be breezy today, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and
occasional gusts near 30 mph, especially NW of I-71.
Seasonably warm temperatures (near record-breaking) continue
today as the Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector of the
approaching surface low. Dry conditions are expected with
increasing cirrus clouds from the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
We're expecting a brief decrease in wind speeds Wednesday around
sunset as we start to decouple. However, as the low pressure
system to our west begins to really encroach into the region,
winds will pick back up again during the overnight hours,
particularly north of I-71. Clouds also thicken and lower ahead
of this system, keeping overnight low temperatures in the
mid/low 60s.
Halloween morning arrives cloudy, breezy, and warm. The area
remains in the warm sector and temperatures rise into the 70s
with Tds rising into the 60s ahead of a cold front that will
push through the area. Additionally, Thursday will likely be the
breeziest day of the week, with sustained winds between 20-25
MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH, particularly northwest of I-71. Will
add mention of this into the HWO.
Showers and storms look to get forced out ahead of the cold
front Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. Right now,
instability (both surface based and elevated) looks pretty
minimal (though not non-existent!). Some rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out- neither can an isolated stronger wind gust.
Unfortunately, timing does look to have most of the precip push
through right during Trick-or-Treat times for much of the
region... will be a good night to keep an eye on the radar if
you're taking the kiddies out. Remember, lightning can strike
10-20 miles away from parent storms!
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will taper off from the northwest Thursday night as the cold
front moves off to our southeast. Temperatures will drop off quickly
in the developing CAA behind the front with lows Thursday night
ranging from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
Surface high pressure will shift east across the Great Lakes on
Friday. This will lead to dry but cool conditions with highs on
Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the high moves off to the
east, we will start to get into some return flow on Saturday with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
Mid and upper level ridging over the southeastern US early next week
will lead to developing southwesterly flow across the Ohio Valley
Sunday into Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area
through the day on Sunday, leading to continued warming and a chance
for showers. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
There is some uncertainty Monday into Tuesday with the strength of
the ridging to our southeast and just how fast additional short wave
energy will be able to work its way into our area from the west.
Will therefore limit pcpn to mainly chance pops with the best
chances across our northwestern areas. Temperatures will be
unseasonably warm with highs Monday and Tuesday well into the
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the majority of
the taf period, but potential impacts from gusty winds and LLWS
expected.
Southwesterly winds will be around 10 kts sustained, with 20-25
kt gusts this afternoon. Wind gusts will likely subside
overnight before ramping back up after sunrise Thursday. As
upper level winds increase, highlight LLWS in the tafs overnight
and into the mid-morning hours Thursday. Strongest surface wind
gusts on Thursday will be in the mid morning to early afternoon
hours, with southwesterly gusts of 30-35 kts expected. KDAY
could observe gusts as high as 40 kts, but this is lower
confidence. Gusts will subside slightly in the mid to late
afternoon hours as we become more saturated, decreasing to
around 25-30 kts.
In the extended KCVG taf, highlighted the potential for a band
of showers moving in during the late afternoon hours Thursday.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are likely at times through Thursday.
Showers are likely Thursday afternoon/evening with some thunder
possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Wednesday high temperature records are as follows:
CVG: 83F, 1927
DAY: 81, 1901,1927
CMH: 80F, 1927
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
CLIMATE...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:57 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
