CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:11 PM EDT791
FXUS61 KCLE 312011
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves across the region tonight. High
pressure will build across the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday
before moving to the New England coast Sunday. Behind the
departing high pressure, a warm front will lift north across the
region on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Gusty winds continue, though have notably been decreasing over
the past couple hours. Hi-res model guidance still suggests an
isolated 40 kt gust is possible within the western wind advisory
area, especially near the I-71 corridor, so will keep the
advisory active for now. There is a good chance that it will be
able to canceled before 8 PM but will keep an eye on things.
Radar observations show limited coverage of showers, though
there is greater coverage to the west and southwest. These rain
showers should overspread the region west to east this evening
into tonight.
The cold front ushers in a much colder airmass (though is
actually near normal for this time of year), with high
temperatures down by 20-25 degrees compared to today. Winds
become westerly and diminish overnight as well. A secondary
trough swings through during the day, bringing some cloudiness
and isolated rain showers, mainly downwind of Lake Erie in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. High pressure begins
to build in from the west Friday night, with calming winds and
cold temperatures (low in the 30s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control for Saturday and Saturday night,
leading to calm and quiet weather. Low pressure will begin taking
shape over the Plains Sunday and Sunday night, allowing southerly
return flow to develop as high pressure exits to our east and
lifting a warm front across the area. Have some shower chances in
the forecast Sunday and Sunday night as a result. Highs will be in
the 50s on Saturday, warming a bit into the upper 50s to mid 60s for
Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be chilly, mainly in the 30s with a
few spots in interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA possibly
sneaking into the upper 20s. Lows Sunday night will be much milder
in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft will amplify along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday
ahead of a trough over the central U.S. This trough and an
associated surface low will lift into the Great Lakes Tuesday and
Tuesday night, dragging a cold front across the local area. High
pressure is expected to build in for Wednesday and Thursday behind
the front. Warmer than average and breezy conditions can be expected
Monday into Tuesday, with much of the area seeing another two days
with highs in the 70s. Temperatures will return to average (or just
slightly above it) for Wednesday and Thursday behind the front.
There may be some intermittent shower chances Monday and Monday
night, though we should be far enough into the warm sector that
Monday won't be a washout. There will be greater rain potential
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the front moves through, followed by a
general trying trend behind the front for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Southwest flow continues this afternoon with gusts most commonly
in the 25-35 knot gust range, though there are have been several
peak gusts up to 40-45 knots, mainly west of I-71. Rain showers
ahead of an approaching cold front begins building in from the
west this afternoon, crossing moving across the area through
this evening and into tonight. Brief visibility reductions may
be possible with a few of the showers, with a few hours of MVFR
ceilings likely. Wind speeds decrease this evening, becoming
westerly this evening into tonight with the frontal passage. A
brief clearing is expected for a few hours before an MVFR cloud
deck builds in Friday morning into Friday afternoon with a
secondary trough. Some lake effect clouds/showers will continue
into the afternoon/evening hours downwind of Lake Erie in parts
of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Sunday
through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty southwest winds are ongoing late this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. This cold front will cross the lake from west to
east between about 23z and 5z this evening and tonight. A brief
push of 35+ knot wind gusts is possible with the front itself.
Strong cold air advection, decent pressure rises, and increasing
mixing heights over the lake water will lead to stronger
sustained winds for several hours overnight tonight behind the
front. Several hours of sustained 30-35 knot winds with gusts to
40-45 knots are expected over the eastern half of the lake
tonight into early Friday. While it is marginal for a Gale
Warning, went ahead and issued one for the eastern half of the
lake as sustained winds will be quite close and there will be a
decent gust factor for a few hours behind the front too. Would
just rather have the headline out than sweat it all night. Winds
slowly diminish from west to east on Friday. Small Craft
Advisories will need to be issued for the nearshore waters from
Avon Point points east for Friday once the Gale Warning expires
or is cancelled. All headlines are expected to be off the board
by Friday afternoon or evening as high pressure builds in.
Quiet marine conditions are expected this weekend on the lake.
Southerly flow may be a bit gusty Monday and Tuesday, with winds
shifting more westerly by Wednesday behind a cold front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-31 80(1950) 78(1950) 82(1950) 79(1950) 78(1933) 76(1927)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>010-
017>019-027>030-036-037.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for OHZ012-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145.
Low Water Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ146>148.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for
LEZ146>148-166>168.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ149.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Friday for
LEZ149-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:11 PM EDT---------------
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