BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 10:20 PM EDT819
FXUS61 KBOX 280220
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Looking at a period of below normal temperatures into Monday
night. A warm front on Tuesday will bring increasing clouds and
chances at light rains. Well above normal temperatures and
southwest breezes are expected Wednesday and Thursday, and high
temperatures in some locations could reach near 80 degrees on
Thursday. A cold front ushers in a cooldown early on Friday,
with drier weather and seasonable temperatures returning for
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Rather quiet weather
continues across southern New England. A cold front across
central VT and NH was slowly moving south. Humidity is really
limited, so expecting this front to only provide another surge
of colder air late tonight. Made some tweaks to sky cover and
temperatures.
750 PM Update:
Overall no significant change needed to the going forecast.
Modest WSW winds continue ahead of a cold front, its position
indicated by a northerly windshift/trough whose axis extends
from about Glens Falls NY ENE thru Concord NH and into Portland
ME. Its passage through Southern New England will be marked by
an increase in cloud cover but other than that, dry weather is
expected.
Previous discussion:
Another dry afternoon with 3 PM observations showing relative
humidity values in the 20 percent range across southern New
England. Wind range from light to marginally breezy across the
region with the higher end of gusts 20-22 kts. Elevated fire
weather conditions will be the main story until dewpoints rise
again around sunset.
Tonight, high pressure sinks southward into the region with a
reinforcing shot of cooler air after midnight. This will shift
winds north and bring some cloud cover to areas of northern MA.
Overall a cool night in store with temperatures dropping into
the 30s with upper 20s for the higher elevation locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow (Monday):
Surface high pressure stays in place with a
cooler airmass tomorrow. This will support high temperatures
below normal in the low to mid 50s. Rinse and repeat with
regards to dry conditions tomorrow. Relative humidity values
drop 20-45 percent with the lower values across northeast MA.
No Red Flag Warning headlines anticipated; however fire weather
conditions may be elevated in areas. See fire weather
discussion below for more details.
Monday Night:
Quiet weather Monday night. Another cool night. Some uncertainty
in the timing and coverage of clouds overnight which will have
some impact on low temperatures. A clear start to the evening
should allow temperatures to drop efficiently into the 30s.
Weak warm advection as a ridge moves in may bring in cloud cover
toward sunrise. If the night ends up with little cloud cover,
could see some chillier readings in the mid to upper 20s across
the higher elevations and parts of MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
* Warm front brings increased cloudiness Tue and Tue night with
chances for light rain showers, best chance north.
* Well above normal temperatures for Wed and on Halloween with
possible 80 degree highs on Thursday, along with southwest
breezes.
* Cooldown behind a cold front either late Halloween night or on
Friday.
* Drier and seasonable for the weekend.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
High pressure shifts offshore early on Tue, as an advancing
strong warm front moves in from the Gt Lakes region later on
Tue and into Tue night. Expect an increase in cloud cover during
the day on Tue, but will be turning OVC later Tue and Tue
night. Latest models now indicate some potential for light rain
showers associated with the warm front's passage, although rain
amounts still end up quite light and won't be substantial enough
to put any dent into the protracted dry spell of recent weeks.
Temps should be several degrees warmer, with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s, and lows in the mid 40s to around 50. With SW
breezes and cloud cover post-warm front, it is possible that
lows could still be too cool and could need to be raised in
later updates.
Wednesday through Thursday:
Anomalously strong 500 mb ridge crests over Southern New England
in this forecast period, with surface high pressure to our
south allowing for southwest breezes. The main story in this
period is well above normal temperatures that are more typical
of late summer to early autumn. Fire weather also likely will be
a concern with the enhanced southwest breezes acting on already
very dry soils given the lack of significant rain.
It's a pretty stark signal for well above normal temps, with the
ensemble means indicating high temps on a Day 4 and 5 forecast
that are some 15-20 degrees warmer than late-October
climatology. The very dry conditions also tend to bias
temperatures a few degrees higher too, in a pattern where temps
may overachieve most guidance. Used the warmer bias-corrected
high temps for Wed and on Halloween, with highs into the 70s on
Wed. The warmest day still looks to be on Thurs with highs well
into the 70s into the low 80s.
Thursday Night into Friday Night:
A cold front will be progressing through Southern New England
either late on Halloween night (with the earliest arrival
being after midnight) or into Friday. Expect increasing clouds
and chances at light rains with PoP in the 25-40 percent range,
although rainfall does not look to be too significant.
Passage of the front into Fri will bring about a cooldown, with
expected early day highs in the mid 60s to low 70s before
falling into the 50s to lower 60s by sundown, with increasing
northwest breezes late in the day. Sided low temps Fri night on
the milder end of guidance in the 30s to low 40s, but if winds
decrease faster than indicated, lows could end up being too warm
and would need to be reduced in later forecasts.
Saturday:
Dry weather returns on Sat with strong high pressure building in,
along with seasonable temperatures in the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday: High confidence.
VFR for most locations through Monday. W winds this afternoon
become WSW this evening. Weak surge of cooler air overnight
switches winds N/NNW 06-10z. Brief period of MVFR possible
towards northern MA and the Berkshires late tonight into Monday
morning. Winds become light NE in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence.
VFR. W to WSW winds late this afternoon with gusts 18-22 kts.
Gusts diminish around 23z. Winds transition NW/NNW 06-10z,
continuing through Monday morning. 18-21z, winds transitions NE
to ENE less than 10 kts.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. North winds developing, but
not as gusty.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday Night...High confidence.
Winds less than 25 kts this afternoon and early evening. A
period of gusts 20-25 kts over the outer waters late tonight
through early Monday morning. Waves 2-4 feet tonight through
Monday night. No Small Craft Advisories anticipated.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Couple degrees cooler Monday, with minimum relative humidity
values 20-40 percent. The lower end of those values are more
likely in MA, especially northeast MA. Winds stay light NNE to
NE. With continued dry conditions, elevated fire weather
conditions are again possible in areas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk/Loconto/Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...Loconto/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 10:20 PM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
