PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:43 PM CDT397
FXUS63 KPAH 301743
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be another very warm and breezy day, with high
temperatures again approaching record warm values.
- A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms during the
morning and afternoon hours. Some drying is possible in the
evening for outdoor Halloween activities.
- After a lull Friday and Saturday, another period of unsettled
weather will arrive beginning Sunday and continue into early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Today and Tonight...As the region remains wedged between a 1031
mb surface high over the southeast CONUS and a 995 mb surface
low over western KS, another warm and a breezy day is expected.
High temperatures will again reach the lower to middle 80s, near
record high values. Breezy south-southwest winds will continue,
with gusts as high as 30 kts possible during the afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will also be near record warm values,
in the middle to upper 60s around the region.
Thursday and Thursday night...As a H5 trough swings through the
central Great Plain into the Upper Midwest, surface low pressure
will organize and deepen over the OK/TX Panhandles and push
northeast. Widespread convection will fire ahead of an
associated cold front over eastern OK and KS into western MO.
These storms will race eastward late tonight, reaching our far
western Ozark Foothill counties during the predawn hours
Thursday (roughly between 4 and 7 AM CDT).
It's unclear if these storms will pose a risk of severe
weather. Surface-based instability will be waning, but still
around 100-250 J/kg, combined with about 30-40 kts of line-
normal 0-3 km bulk shear. While these approaching storms will be
weakening, there looks to be sufficient ingredients to allow
for mesovortex development, which would pose an isolated
damaging wind or brief QLCS tornado risk. SPC has placed
southeast MO and extreme southwest IL in a marginal risk with
the latest Day 1 Outlook. Planning to increase our messaging for
the severe risk with this forecast package.
For the rest of the day Thursday, this complex of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push eastward through the area.
SPC does have a marginal risk for the Day 2 outlook for areas
along and east of the Mississippi River. However, the
environment does not look as supportive at this time, other than
a lightning risk. High temperatures will be tempered by clouds
and rain, but should still reach the lower to middle 70s in most
areas. The cold front will reach our far west and northwest
counties late in the afternoon, and temperatures here will
quickly fall into the upper 50s by early evening.
The question remains whether the rain and thunderstorms will be
clear of the area in time for outdoor Halloween activities in
the evening hours. Most parts of southeast MO and southwest IL
should be dry by 6 PM or so, but slgt-chc PoPs will linger
through 9 PM across far west KY and southwest IN. Chc to likely
PoPs will persist through midnight over the southern KY
Pennyrile. Temperatures in the evening will quickly fall into
the 40s and 50s by midnight following the passage of the cold
front. Given the progressive nature of the showers and
convection, rainfall totals will be fairly modest, about
0.5-1.0" across the region. Still, it will be the most
significant rainfall a lot of places have gotten in the last 4-6
weeks.
Friday through Tuesday night...Following the passage of the
surface cold front, quiet weather looks to return for the end of
the work week into the first half of the weekend. A sprawling
surface high over the eastern Great Lakes will brief a brief
cool down on Friday, and high temperatures will be near
seasonable values, in the middle to upper 60s. Winds will
become more southerly Saturday and Sunday, and high temperatures
will again warm above normal, reaching the upper 60s to middle
70s and middle 70s to lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday,
respectively.
Beginning during the latter half of Sunday, another stout H5
trough will eject from the southern Rocky Mountains, and the
region will find itself in another active baroclinic zone with
SW flow aloft. Models are showing the potential for embedded
disturbances to bring a renewed daily rain chance starting late
Sunday and continuing through early next week. Temperatures will
remain very warm for early November despite the cloud and rain
chances, in the middle 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Rather complicated TAFs this period with a lot going on. Gusty
south winds continue this afternoon, with a brief lull after
sunset before winds ramp back up ahead of an approaching system.
Cloud cover will start to build in from the west this evening
after sunset and heights will get lower as the system
approaches. With this system we will see a northeast to
southwest line of thunderstorms move through the area and will
affect the terminals with heavy downpours, lightning, and strong
winds. There is also some LLWS present at all of the TAF sites
briefly overnight, during the sfc wind lull.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:43 PM CDT---------------
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