LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:11 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...395
FXUS63 KLMK 300511
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and dry with above normal temperatures through Wednesday.
* Widespread rain Thursday into Thursday night, with rainfall
amounts either side of a half inch. Slight chance for thunder and
gusty winds, but will remain sub-severe.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows cirrus streaming
across the region from west to east at this hour. Scattered high
clouds will stream across the region through the rest of the night,
though these should be high enough that some radiational cooling and
boundary layer decoupling will still be possible. Evidence of this
is already present as latest wind obs are mostly below 10 mph with
little in the way of gusts. Winds should not be as strong overnight
tonight as last night as the sfc high to the east becomes more
dominant over the region and the pressure gradient weakens. Lows
should be able to fall into the 50s in most locations outside of the
Louisville metro, which should bottom out around 60.
No major changes to the forecast at this time. Updated forecast
products will be sent shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
A large upper ridge remains over the eastern third of the country.
At the surface, under the ridge, high pressure stretches down the
East Coast and back west over the Gulf Coast states. Farther west,
over eastern Colorado, a surface low sits. It's the pressure
gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley between the two surface features
that is driving the gusty warm air advection. Temperatures are close
to peaking with most area temperatures in the upper 70s with a few
in the low 80s.
Tonight, expect more of the same. Some elevated cloud cover will
stream overhead on upper level flow, but we should remain well mixed
with south winds around 7-10 mph with gusts to near 15 mph. This
will limit cooling with temperatures only falling into the mid 50s
to low 60s.
Tomorrow will be much like today as the overall pattern slides
slightly eastward. This will keep south winds around 10 mph with
gusts to near 20 mph over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Some continued cloud cover could limit warming some, but
temperatures will still make it into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Unseasonably warm and deep pre-frontal SW flow is expected Wednesday
night. Increasing clouds and south breezes will significantly limit
overnight cooling, with temps in the mid/upper 60s at daybreak Thu.
Upper low opens up as it kicks ENE from the Red River Valley of the
North, crossing Gitche Gumee Thu evening and driving a sfc cold
front into the Ohio Valley. Very high PWATs for this time of year
will support widespread showers along and ahead of the front, so
POPs are near categorical with the only uncertainty being whether
rain will fall before or after 0Z on Friday, with amounts either
side of a half inch. Lapse rates are not impressive, but a 50 kt low-
level jet will allow for isolated embedded thunderstorms, and the
potential to mix down some higher momentum air. Gusts should remain
sub-severe but 30-40 mph is on the table in some of the stronger
showers. Best rain chances are Thu afternoon west of I-65, and Thu
evening east of I-65.
Dry weather and more typical fall temperatures will follow Friday
into the weekend as a 1030-1034mb sfc high builds into the Great
Lakes. Trend from previous model runs continues to favor the high
winning out and the next system remaining well to our south and west
through at least Saturday. Upper ridge axis transits to our east by
Sat night, with southerly flow and above normal temps returning
Sunday.
Early next week the pattern will amplify as a deep upper trof digs
into the Four Corners area and ridging builds over the southeast
CONUS. POPs will ramp up slightly Mon-Tue to account for
uncertainty, but a strong meridional component will keep the more
widespread precip west of the Mississippi.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Impacts/Confidence:
- Medium confidence in non-convective LLWS at HNB and SDF this
morning
- High confidence in gusty southerly winds today
Discussion...VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period. The
easternmost edge of a strong LLJ developing ahead of a cold front
located in the Central Plains will advocate for marginal non-
convective LLWS conditions at HNB and SDF through the morning hours.
Then, dry weather and gusty winds of 20-25 knots will continue
throughout the day in a similar fashion to yesterday. Confidence in
low-level clouds at BWG and RAGA this morning is low at the moment
given current satellite trends.
Extended Outlook...Central Plains cold front will approach the area
from the west allowing moisture advection and strengthening winds
over the region. As a result, confidence is increasing in MVFR
ceilings and widespread non-convective LLWS after 31/6Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...ALL
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:11 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
