PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 5:12 PM CDT174
FXUS63 KPAH 282212
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
512 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures can be expected through
Wednesday, along with gusty south winds.
- Showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the
region late Wednesday night, tapering off from northwest to
southeast late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
- Cooler, near seasonal conditions can be expected Friday, with
a warming trend over the weekend.
- Chances of showers return this weekend, especially Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
High pressure over the northeastern U.S. and low pressure over the
Central Plains will result in increasing southerly flow across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. The tightening pressure
gradient between these features will give us winds tonight and
Tuesday night in the 10-18 mph range, and as a result our
temperatures will be significantly warmer with lows in the lower to
middle 60s both nights. Winds on Tuesday and Wednesday will be
15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to around 30 mph, with near record
to record high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s both
days.
The surface low will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night, with the trailing cold front moving into our western
counties by 12z Thursday. Numerous showers and some thunderstorms
will spread across the PAH forecast area between 06z-12z Thursday,
continuing through the morning hours. As the front pushes on
through our area, precipitation will gradually end from northwest
to southeast Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Southern
Illinois and southeast will be dry by 00z Friday, with southwest
Indiana and west Kentucky still possibly dealing with some
scattered showers during any outdoor Halloween festivities.
Rainfall totals will be from a half inch to around an inch.
High temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Temperatures Thursday evening will be generally falling through the
50s, on the way to lows from around 40 degrees to the middle 40s.
Models show high pressure building in behind the cold front, with
the center of the high moving through the Great Lakes region Friday
into Saturday. A weak warm front will lift north Saturday,
giving areas along and west of the Mississippi River chances of
showers Saturday into Saturday evening. As the associated low in
the Central Plains moves east, chances increase and spread east
late Saturday night into Sunday, with good chances continuing
into Monday. Models have been trending a little slower with this
system, so there is uncertainty about the overall timing, and
precipitation may hold off until late in the weekend.
Northeast winds Friday will keep conditions cooler with near normal
highs in the 60s, and lows Friday night in the 40s. Winds will
shift to the southeast by Saturday and the south Saturday night,
and this will take us right back into a warming trend for the
weekend. We will see above normal temperatures, but not as warm
as our current conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Time/height cross sections show some mid to high level bases
possible, esp over the first half of the forecast. After an
evening lull, southerlies will pick up some gustiness again
later tonight and esp tmrw, in what is otherwise a continued
Visual Flight Rules prevailing forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 5:12 PM CDT---------------
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