LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...131
FXUS64 KLIX 200448
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Benign conditions remain in place across the region as deep layer
ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern. This will be
the case through the entire short term period. The end result will
be continued subsidence, a lack of cloud development, low
dewpoints and dry air, and near average temperatures. Model spread
in terms of temperatures is very low, so there were no changes
made from the deterministic NBM output other than to account for
any localized drainage issues along the Pearl and Pascagoula River
basins. The threat of coastal flooding has also diminished and is
now not expected to be an issue during high tide tonight and
tomorrow night. This is largely due to the wind field being both
weaker and more east- northeasterly than previously expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
A series of weak shortwave features moving through the Midwestern
states will help to weaken the mid to upper level ridge axis and
shift it more westward toward Texas for the mid to latter portion
of the week. However, strong ridging will remain in place in the
low levels, and a west-northwest flow regime aloft will prohibit
the return of any deeper moisture. Thus, mainly clear skies, low
dewpoints, and a gradual warming trend with temperatures rising
around 5 degrees above average due to the strength of the ridge
axis to the west will be the rule through the entire extended
period. Temperature spread between the various models remains
small in the long term period, and the deterministic NBM was once
again used for the temperature forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the whole forecast period for all
terminals. Winds will be light to moderate out of the north to
northeast. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Winds and seas remain elevated today across most of the coastal
waters due to the interaction between a strong surface high
centered to the north and Tropical Storm Nadine that has now made
landfall in Belize. As the tropical storm weakens and dissipates
tomorrow and Monday, the pressure gradient over the Gulf will
weaken. This will result in gradually lowering wind speeds and
decreasing seas, but small craft advisory conditions will remain
in place for the open Gulf waters through tomorrow night before
improving on Monday. High pressure will then become more centered
over the waters on Tuesday with lighter winds and seas dropping
below 3 feet for the rest of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 54 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 51 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 63 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 55 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 51 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ557.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ552-555-570-
572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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