ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:18 PM EDT434
FXUS61 KILN 262318
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
718 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain in
place across the region through the weekend. A warming trend
will develop through mid week before the next chance for rain
arrives on Thursday. Breezy conditions are expected at times
Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear skies will prevail through this evening, with some
cirrus departing to the E by late in the day. There are a few Cu
about the region as of early afternoon, but with continued dry
air advection and mixing out of any lingering LL moisture,
expect that coverage should remain fairly limited. In fact,
dewpoints should mix down into the mid to upper 20s near/N of
I-70 past by/21z, leading to dewpoint depressions on the order
of 35+ degrees in some spots. As such, RH values may briefly dip
to around 25% late afternoon into early evening, but the
weakening pressure gradient will lead to gradually subsiding
winds. So fire weather concerns are not expected.
Sfc high pressure settles into the OH Vly tonight, although some
increase in cirrus is expected for the overnight period. Winds
will be generally 5kts or less, with temps dipping into the
lower to upper 30s across the board from N to S, respectively.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday should be a near carbon copy of today, with a few cirrus
from time-to-time as temps top out a few degrees either side of
the 60-degree mark. The sfc high slides E of the region by
Sunday night, allowing for sfc flow to go more southerly by
daybreak Monday.
Sunday night will likely be the coldest night for the
foreseeable future, especially in central/south-central OH and
the lower Scioto Valley into NE KY, where the combination of
calm winds, clear skies, and dry air should allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows should range from the upper
30s (W) to the lower 30s (E) Sunday night, with some upper 20s
likely in rural/sheltered locales in central OH through NE KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather continues Monday through Wednesday as a large area of
high pressure moves east. It will be breezy beginning on Tuesday
afternoon, with frequent gusts over 20 knots. Models call for a wet
interlude on Thursday when a potent cold front carrying plentiful
Gulf moisture is forecast to bring widespread showers and
persistently gusty winds. Dry weather returns Friday with high
pressure. Showers may occur Saturday along a developing warm front.
Temperatures remaining above normal will fluctuate with respect to
frontal position. Warm advection on a southerly flow ahead of the
front will allow highs to increase from around 70 Monday up to 80 on
Wednesday. A retreat through the 70s Thursday to about 60 Friday is
indicated behind the front, with a rebound back into the 60s
expected for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the
lone exception possibly being some brief MVFR VSBYs at KLUK due
to river valley BR. Winds will become light and variable this
evening before going more out of the NE at 5-10kts again toward
the end of the period.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:18 PM EDT---------------
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