BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 10:22 AM EDT662
FXUS61 KBOX 251422
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1022 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides another dry day with less wind today. A
moisture-starved cold front crossing our region Saturday will
increase winds, but not provide much more than some clouds for a
time. Looking at a period of below normal temperatures Sunday
into Monday. Then another significant warm up is anticipated
toward the middle of next week. The next chance of any showers
will be sometime Thursday night or Friday as a cold front moves
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update...
Quiet day in progress with temperatures currently sitting in the
40s and 50s, on their way to highs in the upper 50s and 60s
this afternoon. Forecast is on track.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure should move from the Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic coast, generating a light north wind for this morning,
and more of a west to southwest wind this afternoon. Local
seabreezes are likely. Despite the sunshine, not quite as warm
as the past few days, but still should be near normal for late
October.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Model guidance still showed a modest mid level shortwave to
accompany another cold front arriving from the west late
tonight. Overall, the pattern looks to have too little humidity
and lift to result in much more than some clouds as it passes
through. This front should be offshore by evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points...
* Dry conditions persist
* Cold front progresses through Saturday, bringing near to below
normal temperatures
* Ridging builds back in Tuesday; return of higher than normal
temperatures midweek
Discussion...
Another dry cold frontal passage continues to be expected for
Saturday morning. Behind that, surface temperatures look likely
to drop below 30 in western parts of the CWA and may sit in
the 30s across the rest of southern New England as a trough
settles over New England and Quebec. Temperatures at 925mb are
forecast to be at or below 0C Saturday through Tuesday morning
before a ridge begins to build back in. Cool temperatures during
the day can also be expected through this period. Dry
conditions are also expected to continue, with rain chances
associated with this frontal passage expected to remain in
northern New England.
Strong ridging is still forecast to begin its return around
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicated 850 mb temperatures around
+13C, and up to +15C towards eastern MA. This is a good
indicator for warm temperatures during the day midweek, and this
is supported by probabilites for temperatures over 70F sitting
at 45 to 55 percent as of the last 12Z LREF run for Wednesday,
and that chance gets even higher Thursday; up to 91 percent
across eastern MA and parts of the CT Valley, and generally
above 60 percent across the rest of southern New England.
Ensembles hint at highs above 75F across eastern MA and the
southern CT Valley, so that will be something to continue
monitoring.
Any relief for the ongoing dryness remains to be out of reach
over the current forecast period. GEFS probs only indicate a
10 percent chance and lower for any measurable rain in SNE by
late Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
VFR with N/NW winds. Gradient remains weak enough today for
coastal sea breezes. It's possible we see lower-end VFR cigs
today, especially over RI and E MA.
VFR tonight, with lower end VFR for late tonight into Saturday.
A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible across the higher
terrain into Saturday morning. Gusty NW winds developing
Saturday behind the passage of a cold front.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. Timing of seabreeze may be an hour
or so earlier.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High confidence.
Northerly winds diminish some today, but rough seas will linger.
High pressure moves to the Mid Atlantic coast today, switching
winds to the southeast ahead of an approaching cold front. This
front should cross the waters Saturday, leading to gusty
northwest winds late in the day. Small Craft Advisories continue
for the outer MA coastal waters into at least Saturday morning
for hazardous seas.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
For today, expecting minimum relative humidity values of 30-40
percent across the interior, and 40-60 percent towards the coast
and SE MA. However, light winds expected, mostly below 10 mph.
Dry conditions will continue this weekend with increasing winds,
which will lead to renewed elevated fire weather risk.
For Saturday, minimum RH values expected between 35-50 percent
with NW gusts up to 30 mph.
For Sunday, minimum RH values anticipated between 25-45 percent
with NW gusts up to 25 mph.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ251-
256.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
FIRE WEATHER...Belk
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 10:22 AM EDT----------------
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