CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:30 AM EDT557
FXUS61 KCLE 280530
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge affects our region through Wednesday night while it
exits very slowly toward New England and Atlantic waters east
of the Canadian Maritimes. A strong cold front is still expected
to sweep eastward across our region on Thursday. Behind the
front, a ridge builds gradually from the north-central United
States through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Temperatures continue their quick plummet this evening while
clouds continue to remain over far NE OH and NW PA. Have
adjusted temperature and cloud trends over the next several
hours and have lowered overnight lows by a couple of degrees.
Previous Discussion...
Aloft, NW'erly flow backs gradually to W'erly through Monday
night as a mid/upper-level ridge builds over our CWA and the
axis of this ridge moves from the north-central United States
toward the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley. Simultaneously,
the surface portion of the ridge continues to impact our CWA as
the core of the ridge shifts from the Upper OH Valley toward
New England. The evolution of the ridge will allow primarily
SE'erly to S'erly surface winds associated with low-level WAA to
impact northern OH and NW PA through daybreak Tuesday.
Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge will allow fair
weather to persist through Monday. Mainly clear to partly cloudy
sky, easing surface winds, and low humidity at/near the surface
will promote fairly efficient nocturnal cooling this evening
through daybreak Monday, when lows are expected to reach mainly
the 30's in our CWA, but lows in the 40's are expected over and
very near ~60F Lake Erie. Late afternoon highs are expected to
reach the upper 50's to lower 60's in NW PA and the 60's in
northern OH as daytime heating is complemented by low-level
WAA on Monday.
Primarily fair weather is expected Monday night. However, a
strengthening SW'erly LLJ at/near 925 mb, between the low-level
ridge axis to our east and a low-level trough axis in vicinity
of the northern/central Great Plains, should begin to impact
our CWA. This LLJ will be associated with enhanced isentropic
ascent of a return flow of relatively-warm, humid, and
potentially unstable air originating over the Gulf of Mexico.
The isentropic ascent may release enough potential instability
to trigger isolated rain showers over our CWA, especially after
midnight and through daybreak Tuesday morning. Greater cloud
cover and continued low-level WAA will contribute to a milder
Monday night. Lows are expected to reach mainly the 40's to
lower 50's around daybreak Tuesday in NW PA and northern OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Will be watching the phasing of the southern and northern branches
of the upper level flow as troughs progress out of the Rockies and
across the midwest/prairies. High pressure retreating off the
Atlantic coast and surface low pressure closing off in the western
Great Lakes as the trough aloft approaches increases the pressure
gradient over the CWA. Southwesterly flow at the surface will be on
the increase as a result, ushering in warmer air that will approach
record setting high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
Probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 35mph already on the higher
side in the ensembles for the western CWA Thursday morning/the end
of the short term period. No effects from the cold front itself in
the short term, with POPs holding off until the long term period,
but some lingering weak isentropic lift courtesy of a warm front
clips the northern lakeshore areas beginning the short term Tuesday
morning with very light rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As mentioned in the short term, higher probabilities for wind gusts
over 35mph will push eastward Thursday morning ahead of and with the
cold front that will cut through the CWA. Low level flows on the
increase making for a high shear environment when the f-gen comes
into the CWA after 12Z Thursday, but not seeing much right now in
the way of instability. Still keeping without thunder in the grids,
but gusty showers a distinct possibility. Post frontal trough keeps
shower possibilities open late Thursday night into Friday morning,
but high pressure quickly building into the Great Lakes dries things
out once again. Temperatures back into the 50s Friday, with some
slight insolation modification to the airmass Saturday where some
60s make an appearance again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR across the TAF sites with VFR to persist through the TAF
period with mainly high cirrus overhead. No precipitation is
expected through 6Z Tuesday, although low precipitation chances
will begin to appear at CLE closer to 12Z Tuesday.
Winds are generally light variable early this morning. Winds
will gradually increase out of the south to south-southeast by
mid-morning, 5 to 10 knots. A weak lake breeze is possible at
ERI in the afternoon, but low confidence precludes a
directional component at this time.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered rain
showers Tuesday morning. Non-VFR more likely on Thursday in
widespread showers with a cold front. Southwest winds will
occasionally gust between 25 and 35 knots Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds under high pressure become southerly
tonight and Monday around 10kts with wave heights less than 2ft.
Southerly winds increase Tuesday to 15-25kts, becoming southwesterly
15-25kts Wednesday. Wave heights less than 2ft out to 5NM, but
increasing to 3-5ft in the open waters. Wednesday night and
Thursday, winds still yet increase out of the southwest to 20-30kts
with gusts to 35kts. Wave heights become an issue in some of the
nearshore zones now, although the western basin nearshore zones
remain slightly sheltered, but the remainder of the lake now at
4-6ft waves. A cold front comes through Thursday with winds
turning westerly at 20-25kts and wave heights 4-7ft in the
central and eastern basins, becoming northwesterly Friday at
10-15kts and wave heights decreasing to 2-4ft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-warm air mass will arrive across the region in
the early to middle part of this week, with the potential for
record warm high temperatures on Tuesday, October 29th and
Wednesday, October 30th.
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-29 78(1999) 79(1922) 78(1946) 77(1900) 75(1999) 75(1946)
10-30 77(1971) 80(1927) 79(1950) 77(1900) 75(1999) 79(1946)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:30 AM EDT---------------
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