IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:56 AM EDT210
FXUS63 KIWX 251156
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
756 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers will move west to east across the area through
late morning. Then, dry weather takes over this afternoon into
the later part of the next work week.
- Brief cool down this weekend followed by warming temperatures
to near record highs mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
A trough across the middle portion of the United States pushes an
associated weakening area of vorticity in conjunction with a cold
front through this morning. Showers and storms were dissipating
around midnight last night in 30 degree dew points across eastern
Illinois, but were maintaining themselves in a little bit better
columnar moisture where 40 degree dew points resided in Western
Illinois. Low res models dissipate all semblance of instability
with these showers into Friday morning whereas the NAM
maintains a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE. Between now and
sunrise, models have the best columnar moisture north of US-30,
but the better convective ingredients south of US-30 so will
continue PoPs with these modes in mind. Given that it's been so
dry and we're talking about 30 to 45 degree dew points, there's
some skepticism with how long these can last into the day. SPC's
got the general thunder area for today so perhaps there still
remains an area for thunder, but with moisture and instability
lacking, the severe threat into this morning will be low. The
moisture plume will be on its way out of here during the
afternoon as the cold front pushes away so expect decreasing
clouds during the evening from west to east. Given the early
arrival of the cold front, peak heat may be slightly displaced
earlier meaning the residence time for high temperatures may not
be as clean as we've had the last couple of days with the clear
skies. Additionally, the warm sector should be displaced south
and east of the area so the strongest of gusty winds should
remain to our south and east. Still have between 15 and 20 kts
at times today along the front and as the CAA begins to come
into the area.
As we head to Saturday, surface high pressure is back in and dry
weather, and its 30 degree dew points, returns. With high pressure
slowly pushing through the area, dry weather will be maintained
across the area through Monday, at least. MinRH values in the 20 to
30 percent range will be common, but 25 mph wind gusts will be
uncommon during this stretch so we'll be dry enough for fires, but
they may not spread out of control as quickly. Monday night, a warm
front pushes northward and the ECMWF has a few light showers
associated with it. In this scenario, am skeptical we see rain out
of it given how dry the moisture column is. Expect cooler 50 to 60
degree high temperatures and cold freezing or below lows Saturday
night behind the cold front. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s will be
common during the warm side of the warming trend on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Tuesday actually sees gusts increase between 20 and 30
mph and if we mix out during the afternoon and it stays dry behind
the warm front, that could be an interesting fire weather day.
Between Tuesday and Thursday, an upper low across the Plains
undergoes a cyclonic wave break and breaks off from the flow. This
often decreases confidence in the evolution of the pattern, and its
resultant sensible weather during that time. However, models still
have confluence (which doesn't necessarily always translate to a
high confidence forecast) around bringing a cold front associated
with this vort max through Thursday. This moisture plume pushes
northward into southeast Canada and has a connection to the Gulf. As
such, depending on the timing of the front, there could be some
instability associated with it and, therefore, maybe some
thunderstorms, but don't have enough confidence to put it in at this
juncture. For whatever it's worth, PWATs are expected to increase to
between 2 to 3 SDs above normal as currently depicted on the
GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites,
with most of the heaviest rain and thunderstorms east of the
terminals as of this writing. Shower activity will continue on
and off through late morning, with a band of light rain extending
from St. Louis northeast through KSBN into Kalamazoo MI, and
more convective shower activity from Indy into Van Wert, OH.
Most of the guidance keeps the terminals between 1500-2500 ft
behind the cold front, which will be entering Western IL soon.
Winds are out of the SE right now, and will shift WNW behind
the cold front. Beyond that, skies will gradually clear as high
pressure builds in, with winds becoming light out of the N-NW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for LMZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Saturday for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:56 AM EDT---------------
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