IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 9:47 PM EDT746
FXUS63 KIND 270147
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
947 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures this weekend with breezy winds this
afternoon
- Near record warmth Tuesday and Wednesday along with wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph
- Rain likely for Halloween
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Mostly clear skies early this evening along with diminishing winds
and a dry atmosphere has allowed temperatures to fall quickly,
especially in rural areas. Updated hourly temperatures as needed
based on latest trends in observations.
However, satellite shows a large area of high clouds moving into the
area from the west. This will help slow the temperature falls some.
Clouds will diminish late tonight as the high clouds begin to exit.
With the clouds moving in, only made some tweaks to the low
temperature forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Beautiful autumn afternoon in progress with sunny skies over the
Hoosier State. 18z temperatures were generally in the lower to mid
60s.
After the brief shot of rain on Friday expansive high pressure has
reasserted itself across the easter Midwest. This has led to a
return of the weather we have enjoyed for much of the month: dry
with mainly clear skies. The high will remain the dominant feature
throughout the weekend maintaining dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures.
Sunny skies will persist through the rest of the afternoon with
soundings showing the presence of deep subsidence overhead. Solid
boundary layer mixing has enabled northeast winds to be stead around
10 mph with sporadic higher gusts. Should keep the light breeze
through most of the afternoon before dropping off near sunset. A
subtle upper level save will track across the region in the NW flow
aloft, bringing an increase in high clouds. The cirrus though should
remain thin with little impact to temperature falls overnight. The
upper wave will pass to our SE with the clouds departing in the
predawn hours. Sunday should largely be a carbon copy of today with
clear skies but one difference will be lights winds gradually
transitioning to a more southerly direction by later in the day as
the center of the high moves across the region.
As mentioned above, despite the cirrus overnight, not expecting much
of an impact to temperatures as decent radiational cooling
conditions will enable many locations to fall into the 30s and
ensure a frosty start on Sunday. Growing confidence that northern
counties will bottom out near 32 degrees with our normal cool spots
likely to even drop slightly below freezing. Low level thermals are
supportive of highs on Sunday afternoon near readings this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s northeast to the mid
60s across the lower Wabash Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Monday Through Wednesday...
Near record high temperatures around 80 degrees by Tuesday!
Surface high pressure over the region Sunday shifts eastward as
ridging builds over the Plains. Strong ridging builds in over the
Eastern CONUS Monday through Wednesday next week with a tight
pressure gradient between a 1030mb high over the Mid Atlantic and a
sub-1000mb low pushing through the Northern Plains. The low level
jet ramps up to 40-50 kts by Tuesday pumping in moist, anomalously
warm air from the Gulf into the region. Ample sunshine and boundary
layer heating with strong warm air advection will result in highs
well above normal for the end of October. In fact, by Tuesday and
Wednesday, highs may approach or reach daily record highs in the
lower 80s. In addition to such a warm airmass moving in, deep
mixing, a tight pressure gradient, and an intense low level jet will
likely result in gusty winds at or above 40 mph Tuesday and
Wednesday and potentially Thursday. Will be watching the strong wind
potential closely as headlines may be needed later next week.
Still watching the Fire Weather potential next week as winds ramp up
and fuels remain very dry for this time of year. The good news is
that moisture advection should be fairly strong, resulting in rising
dew points into the 50s and increasing RH values Tuesday through
Thursday. There is a possibility that deeper mixing offsets the
moist air advection, bringing down drier air aloft during the
afternoon hours each day. Adjusted afternoon Min RH and dew points
down to the NBM5th percentile which yields afternoon RH values in
the 35-45 percent range Mon, Tues, and Wed afternoons...the driest
areas being North Central and NW portions of the state. Will have to
watch this threat closely as strong winds and dry fuels may still
result in an elevated fire weather risk even if RH values are
slightly elevated.
Halloween through Early Next Weekend ...
Latest guidance continues to show a wet Halloween as a front with a
strong LLJ parallel to it moves through during the day on Thursday.
Deterministic guidance has trended a little faster with the
rainfall, bringing the heaviest rainfall over the state midday.
ECAIF and GFSGraphcast still show the potential for light
precipitation lingering into the evening hours when many outdoor
activities and events may be occurring on Thursday. High confidence
exists in a warm and wet forecast for Thursday, with lower
confidence on how late the rainfall lingers Thursday night. Rain
amounts look to range from around a tenth of an inch to as much as a
half inch with the higher amounts being in a slower moving system
scenario which is the outlier within the ensemble runs.
Dry weather looks likely for Friday and Saturday with temperatures
returning to near normal to slightly above normal for this time of
year. Longer range guidance continues to hint at additional
precipitation chances Sunday into the following week; however
confidence in placement of fronts and synoptic systems remains low
at this point. The longer range pattern does favor at to above
normal temperatures locally.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
The ground had time to dry out today, so not expecting fog tonight.
Otherwise, some high and perhaps mid clouds will move through during
the night. A few high clouds may linger on Sunday. Winds will lessen
during the night, then southeast winds at less than 10kt are
expected on Sunday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 9:47 PM EDT---------------
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