IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 12:18 PM EDT994
FXUS63 KIWX 231618
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1218 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather through next week Tuesday except for a brief
period of showers late Thursday night and early Friday.
- Seasonably mild through Tuesday, highs near 60 to the mid 70s,
although somewhat cooler this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
An upper low had become cut off over the far east Pacific near
the coast of Oregon and Washington. This system will soon eject
east and race across the CONUS. Widespread general model consensus
over the forecast area supports showers in about a 6 hour window
from late Thursday night into early Friday from about 09Z to 15Z
(5 AM EDT to 11 AM EDT). There should be overall better upper
level and atmospheric support for showers closer to Lake
Michigan. After coordination with surrounding offices, have
narrowed the timing of the showers and kept a slight chance for
thunder in the forecast. Lowered model blend rain chances from
>80% to 60%. Otherwise, very limited cold air will be able to
spread over the region given upstream teleconnections. Very mild
air will return by Tuesday with temperatures rising well into
the 70s ahead of a large upstream amplifying trof. The CPC 6 to
10 day outlook is quite a statement on the chances (>80%)
temperatures will rise above normal next week to end October.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Gusty northwest winds to ~25 knots will be the story this
afternoon post-frontal. A period of MVFR to low VFR stratocu may
also settle in for a time at mainly KSBN given some brief lake
enhancement. VFR with winds quickly diminishing otherwise into
this evening and beyond as high pressure builds in.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 12:18 PM EDT---------------
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