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042 FXUS64 KLIX 182019AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA319 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024The deep layer ridge that has dominated the region will continueto do so through the weekend. This will result in continued lowhumidity, mainly clear skies, and persistent east-northeast winds.Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend as the heartof a 925mb thermal trough axis shifts to the east of the region.This will allow temperatures to climb back to more averagereadings with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80sand lows in the 50s and lower 60s. The temperature spread betweenthe 25th and 75th percentiles is averaging 3 degrees this weekend,so the forecast largely mirrors the NBM deterministic output. Theonly adjustment made, as has been done the past few days, is toaccount for cold air drainage and cooler temperatures in the Pearl River and Pascagoula River basins each night.The only concern over the weekend is the potential for some minorcoastal flooding along east facing shorelines as the persistenteast wind of 15 to 20 mph and increased wave activity offshoreincreases wave runup along the coast. Minor coastal flooding ofaround 1 foot above ground level is expected during each high tidecycle for east facing shorelines. A coastal flood advisory hasbeen issued for tonight, and additional coastal flood advisorieswill be issued over the weekend. &&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024The same deep layer ridging in place this weekend will remain overthe area through Tuesday, and this will allow for a continuationof the same conditions seen across the area for the past few daysin the form of low humidity, clear skies, and a persistenteasterly flow. Coastal flooding concerns during high tide areexpected to continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weakening ofthe pressure gradient over the northern Gulf on Tuesday shouldallow the coastal flood threat to ease by Tuesday night. Temperaturespread also remains limited between the various model solutions, so have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values on Monday andTuesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average withhighs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. The deep layer ridge axis will shift toward Texas on Wednesday andThursday, and winds aloft will turn more northwesterly. A weakupper level trough axis and associated front will slide throughthe area Thursday into Thursday night, but a lack of moisture will limit cloud development and keep rain chances near zeropercent as the front slides through. The end result is thecontinuation of the dry conditions observed for much of the month.Temperatures still exhibit little overall spread at 5 degrees orless between the 25th and 75th percentiles in the extended range,so the temperature forecast continues to mirror that of the NBMdeterministic output. Temperatures will be slightly warmer thanaverage with values rising into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.However, a large diurnal range due to the dry air and clear skiesin place will allow temperatures to cool 25 to 30 degrees eachnight resulting in lows in the 50s and 60s. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024Continued VFR conditions at all of the terminals as a very dry andstable airmass resides across the region. Skies will remain clearand winds will be persistent from the east-northeast at 7 to 10knots.&&.MARINE...Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024A tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf in relation toa strong surface high centered north of the area and astrengthening low pressure system over the western Caribbean willkeep rough conditions in place across the majority of the watersthrough Monday. Strong east winds of 20 to 30 knots will lead tovery rough and hazardous seas of 7 to 11 feet in the open Gulfwaters tonight through Monday due to a combination of swell andwind waves. In the sounds and lakes, winds of 15 to 20 knots and waves of 2 to 5 feet are expected through the weekend. Conditions will finally begin to ease on Tuesday as the low to the south weakens. Easterly flow will fall below 15 knots and seas willgradually improve to 2 to 4 feet offshore and 1 to 3 feet in thelakes and sounds on Tuesday.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 48 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 49 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 62 77 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 53 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ069-070-076-078.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ086.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
