PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:25 PM CDT640
FXUS63 KPAH 221725
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs will reach around 80 today and lower 80s are possible
Wednesday.
- Mid and late week cold frontal passages will cool us off to
more seasonal levels in their wake. The latter front will
bring a small chance of precipitation to the forecast just
prior to the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Today we see our first non-high pressure related interplay in
the forecast, as the models have consistently advertised. The
net sum game is...it's still a primarily high pressure
dominated influence and as such will result in another day of
sunshine and warm temps as we sail to highs around 80 degrees.
We do see that open wave of low pressure, currently around 566DM
at H5 lift, flatten, and fill, as it approaches the Mississippi
Valley. There is scant moisture to work with, but maybe we get
a few more mid-high clouds than we've had the past several days
as high pressure was situated overhead. The high shifts east as
the wave approaches, and the gradient tightens, so the primary
sensible weather impact we have is increasing southerly winds
that just might gust into the 20s mph at their peak. We keep the
silent non zero pop with scant moisture available to work with.
The decay of the wave occurs as it becomes enveloped in the
broader westerlies that will be dropping the next upper trof and
its surface reflected cold front down across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. After another warm day Wednesday, with highs
reaching toward 80/perhaps into the lower 80s, we see this next
(also moisture starved) front's passage and cooler air mass
come in with a return to more seasonal lower and middle 70s
forecast highs for Thursday. It's worth noting that several
days ago, the NBM was modeling highs from the mid 60s to lower
70s for both Thursday and Friday in the wake of this passage.
Now we're looking at just Thursday for low-mid 70s, with a
return to lower 80s Friday, just ahead of the next cold front
incoming. It will be sharper and stronger with a colder air mass
to replace ours...producing upper 60s to lower 70s forecast
highs for the weekend. It will also bring our next best (albeit
still small) chance of rain upon its approach Thursday night-
Friday and eventual passage Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Gusty
southerly winds this afternoon with gusts of 15-25 kts. Expected
some LLWS overnight for MVN, EVV, and OWB. A cold front will
move through the area and shift winds around to the northwest by
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:25 PM CDT---------------
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