LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 10:25 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...501
FXUS64 KLIX 180325
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1025 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Considering latest wind guidance for tomorrow has been coming in a
bit stronger, have opted to issue Small Craft Advisory for much of
the coastal waters with the exception of Lake Pontchartrain from
mid-morning Friday through Friday night. The expectation is that
the advisory will need extended beyond that time for some or most
of the waters in later packages, potentially through most of the
weekend, as noted in the marine discussion from the afternoon
package.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
After starting our day in the 40s with exception to the
southshore, we've made it all the way up into the low 70s. An
exceptionally deep layer of dry air is entrenched on the backside
of the strong long wave trough exiting the eastern CONUS spanning
down the entire Mississippi River Basin and into the southeastern
CONUS. With PWATs at daily record minimums and high pressure
settling in across the eastern CONUS it's safe to say we're not
getting much in the way of rain chances anytime soon. As a side
note, we actually did reach the upper 30s within the Pearl River
and Pascagoula River basins in associated with the river drainages
and have nudged temps down in these areas again tonight given the
similar regime with light winds. Expect more of the same tomorrow
with lower RHs and temperatures climbing into the mid 70s
areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
A gradual warming trend shapes the entirety of the long term as
longwave ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures reach
back to average by Saturday and become above average by Tuesday.
This is largely induced by rising mid-level temperatures coupled
with overnight lows moderating as easterly winds on southern flank
of the strong high pressure system centered over Appalachia allow
some gulf moisture to mix back in. Really nothing of note in the
pattern on the horizon at this time, but we'll have to keep an eye
on an apparent pattern flip coming later in the month that could
favor western CONUS troughing and subsequently southwest flow over
our area. This would make for a more active pattern over our area
with more consistent rain chances possible. We shall see.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period and beyond.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
As strong high pressure builds over the northern Gulf of Mexico,
winds will slowly ease through the rest of the workweek for the tidal
lakes and nearshore waters. Cautionary headlines will still be
needed, especially for the outer gulf waters through Friday. The
pressure gradient will then tighten again over the weekend on the
southwest side of the strong high pressure system. At least moderate
easterly winds of 20 to 25 knots across the open Gulf Waters are
anticipated and additional small craft headlines will probably be
needed through Sunday, especially for increased wave heights in
the waters extending beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Increasing easterly fetch over the weekend will also lead to
coastal flooding concerns for east-facing coastlines especially
where upwards of 1 to 2 feet of coastal inundation will be
possible beginning on Saturday during the high tide cycle.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 43 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 48 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 47 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 74 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 74 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 45 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 10:25 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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