BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 2:25 AM EDT495
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
225 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and dry weather along with well above normal
temperatures expected into Monday, with strong high pressure in
control. Continued mild and dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday,
followed by a shift to briefly colder weather Thursday and Friday.
This change in airmass will be accompanied by scattered showers
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Dry weather thereafter
and continuing into next weekend, along with moderating
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A ridge of high pressure continues to bring us clear skies and
westerly winds. Winds are expected to calm a bit during the late
evening/early nighttime hours, continuing to favor strong
radiational cooling. With how dry it is, the chance for fog is very
low. Expect a clear, dry night ahead with lows in the 40s for much
of the region, with 50s along the coasts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Near-record highs are possible Monday with clear skies and westerly
winds, encouraged by a tightening pressure gradient. Fire weather
concerns may continue through tomorrow for this reason. Recent
guidance shows 925 mb temps up to +15C to +17C across much of
southern New England Monday afternoon/evening, and forecast
soundings show decent mixing once daytime heating kicks in. Highs
are forecast to be in the 70s across the region, with some spots
flirting with 80 (Norwood, parts of SE MA, and areas in the CT and
Merrimack Valleys). Dew points make a bit of a recovery Monday,
returning to the upper 40s and lower 50s by the afternoon hours.
The gradient weakens a bit going into Monday night, so winds are
expected to die off considerably once the sun sets and diurnal
mixing ends. Dew points are still expected to remain in the upper
40s through Monday night, which is supported by some moisture making
its way into the 925 mb and 850 mb levels. With the winds dying off
and the near-record highs during the day, lows Monday night are not
expected to get as low as they have been over the last few days.
Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning are expected to only be
around the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1220 PM update...
Highlights:
* Dry and mild weather Tuesday and Wednesday
* Northern stream short wave and attending cold front brings a risk
for scattered showers Wed night/early Thu, followed by a brief
period of colder weather
* Dry weather returns later Thu and continues Fri/Sat/Sun, along
with moderating temperatures
Synoptic Overview...
Ensembles and deterministic guidance in good agreement on a northern
stream dominant weather regime this period, which translates to
moisture starved short waves moving across the northern states,
Great Lakes and into New England. This supports mainly dry weather,
other than Wed night/early Thu, as the only opportunity for some wet
weather. Given a strong Pacific jet during this forecast period,
there will be a lack of cold air intrusions into Southern New
England, other than a brief shot of CAA Thu/Fri. Therefore,
temperatures at and above normal much of the time this period.
Precipitation...
Looks like our dry month of weather will continue much of this
forecast period. The only chance of wet weather is late Wed night
into early Thu morning, as a northern stream short wave and
attending cold front sweeps across the region. Not expecting
widespread showers or heavy rainfall amounts given lack of deep
layer moisture and progressive short wave. In fact, Euro ensembles
only offering 20-30% chance of QPF exceeding 0.10 inches. Thus, some
areas may see very little if any rain. As for Thu, other than a risk
for scattered showers early in the day across eastern MA, dry
weather returns Thu and continues into Fri/Sat and Sun, as trough
departs and is replaced by rising heights.
Temperatures...
Theme here remains mild with temperatures above normal (normal highs
58-63, lows 40-45). 70s Tue and Wed, although cooler eastern MA
coast Tue, in the wake of a backdoor cold front, followed by
maritime high pressure. Colder Thu and Fri behind FROPA Thu, with
core of cold air overhead Fri, highs then only in the 50s. Blustery
NW winds Thu/Thu night, slacken Fri as 1025+ mb high pressure
advects south of New England. Then height rises and westerly flow at
850 mb per ensembles next weekend, should support moderating
temperatures to near normal, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Overnight Through Monday Night: High confidence.
VFR. Winds early this morning start around light SW for most of
the interior airports, but are SWly around 5-10 kt for eastern
MA and RI. SW winds today will steadily increase in all areas
to around 10 kt with, developing gusts in the 18-20 kt range by
late morning. Gusts then ease around sundown, with speeds
decreasing tonight and will begin to shift to light NW or
perhaps become a light N/NE late in the overnight/pre- dawn Tue
period.
Tuesday: High confidence.
VFR. Winds will turn to N or NE around 4-8 kt by mid-morning (if
not a little sooner); winds then flip to S or SE for most
airports into the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. SW winds prevail
through Mon up to 10 kt with 20 kt gusts developing around late
morning. No seabreezes expected. Easing WSW winds tonight,
though will trend to a light N and NE direction after 07z Tue.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. SW winds up to 5 kt
through early this morning, then increase to around 10 kt with
occasional gusts to 17-20 kt on Monday.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence.
Tranquil boating conditions continue tonight through Monday.
Mainly SW winds around 10 to 15 kt are expected through
tonight, then staying around 15 kt on Monday before coming back
down going into Monday night. Seas 4 ft or less across all
waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued Fire Weather concerns across the region tomorrow as high
pressure and westerly winds keeps conditions abnormally dry. Winds
will be noticeably higher tomorrow afternoon out of the west, gusting
15 to 20 knots. With dewpoints in the low to mid 40s, and temps
warming up close to 80F, MinRH values will be in the 25-35% range
with a low chance at minRH falling below 20%.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the record highs for Monday, October 21st.
BOS 82/1920
PVD 81/1920
BDL 82/1920
ORH 80/1920
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/Nocera
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
FIRE WEATHER...KP
CLIMATE...Nocera
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 2:25 AM EDT----------------
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