IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 9:42 PM EDT283
FXUS63 KIND 230142
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
942 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler and breezy Wednesday
- Cold front Friday will bring cooler temperatures to the area
- Showers will be possible late Thursday night into Friday evening
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
An upper disturbance is squeezing mid level moisture and producing
some isolated weak showers across the eastern forecast area. With
dry low levels, not much is reaching the ground. Given the very
small coverage and the fact that not much is likely reaching the
ground, will not mention these in the forecast. These will exit the
area in an hour or two.
Otherwise, upped sky cover based on latest trends seen on satellite.
A general decrease in cloud cover will continue into the early
overnight, but some high clouds will return late, ahead of the next
system.
Lowered wind gusts some overnight as models are likely overdoing
mixing. Adjusted hourly temperatures based on recent trends, but
overnight lows look reasonable given a continued southerly flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Near term concerns are adjusting slightly to account for model
mixing bias toward more moisture in this type regime. The hi-res
models tend to do better and latest observations bear that out. This
is resulting in low enough RH values coupled with strong enough wind
for elevated fire weather conditions. In coordination with forestry,
live fuels are not particularly receptive and given the marginality
of the meteorological conditions, critical thresholds will not be
reached. Nevertheless, an increase in grass fires may occur, but
difficulty controlling on a large scale isn't expected. These
conditions will improve as mixing subsides this evening and RH
rises.
A deamplifying trough will pass through with some cirrus and an
attendant low-level jet, enhanced with the nocturnal stabilization
and decoupling later this evening. Gusts should subside but overall
MSLP gradient should keep winds up at around 10 mph overnight.
Following the initial midlevel shortwave trough will be a broader
trough, that will force a cold front through tomorrow. A switch to
northwesterly winds with continued MSLP gradient and mixing-induced
gusts can be expected, along with moderation of temperatures closer
to (but still above) climatological normal for mid-late October.
Moisture content rises to near climo, which is dry given the season,
and insufficient for any precipitation with this shortwave/frontal
passage. One or more bands of mid-high level clouds may be observed
tonight through early tomorrow though.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
The long term period will feature a bit of a roller coaster ride
temperature wise as a quick moving shortwave trough and associated
cold front pass through the area late Thursday night into Friday
evening, with strong surface high pressure areas both ahead and
following behind. This will necessitate chances for showers during
the late week time frame, with dry weather expected otherwise.
Temperatures will be fairly sharply cooler tomorrow night into
Thursday in the wake of tomorrow's frontal passage, with lows in the
mid to upper 30s and highs Thursday in the 60s, but good warm
advection ahead of the late week system will drive temps back above
normal briefly on Friday before the next cold frontal passage drops
us back to near to slightly below normal for the weekend. Some
moderation early next week may bring us back toward the 70s.
Diurnal ranges will likely be enhanced throughout much of the
period, given the very dry antecedent conditions. Made some minor
adjustments to account for this. Additionally, made dewpoint
adjustments, particularly during the afternoon hours on dry days, to
account for NBM persistent high bias on dewpoints.
Moisture may still be a struggle for the late week system, though
some mid and upper level higher theta-e air may be available out of
the southwest - but rainfall amounts will be light and low level dry
air will eat into totals as top down saturation occurs.
K index values indicate a low shot at a few rumbles of thunder late
Thursday night into Friday morning, and will insert a slight chance
of thunder then.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Impacts:
- Non-convective low level wind shear this evening and overnight
- Wind shift to the northwest on Wednesday with gusts 20-25kt
Discussion:
Showers will be out of KLAF well before valid time, and no
additional rainfall is expected.
Strong winds aloft will continue overnight, but surface winds will
lessen, creating low level wind shear conditions.
A cold front will move through on Wednesday with mainly mid and high
clouds with it. Winds will shift to the northwest during the morning
but gusts will highest in the afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 9:42 PM EDT---------------
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