LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:37 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...581
FXUS64 KLIX 171737
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
A very fresh or crisp early morning across the region.
Temperatures at the time of the discussion ranged from the upper
50s to lower 60s on the south shore to lower to middle 40s along
I10/12 including the MS Gulf Coast. This is all thanks to the
broad scale upper level trough across the eastern US. At the
surface, high pressure continues to drop southward into the mid MS
River Valley. This has helped weaken the surface pressure
gradient over landbased zones. This is good news from a fire
weather perspective going into Thursday. With the lackluster
winds, additional Red Flag Warnings will not be necessary.
However, RH values will remain in the critical ranges...so easy
ignition of fire will still be possible. In fact, just how dry is
it? From the 00z KLIX RAOB, PWATs were as low as 0.26"...which
beats the record low for the same date and time with the previous
being 0.31".
The upper level pattern begins to evolve going into tonight and
especially into Friday as the upper trough becomes replaced with
some weak ridging. With the gradual increase in heights and
thicknesses, daytime temperatures will gradually warm back into
the middle 70s on Friday with overnight lows...although still cool
should only drop into the upper 40s/lower 50s north and lower to
middle 60s across the southern tier. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
The warming trend highlighted in the short term discussion will
continue into the long range, especially as heights/thicknesses
continue to increase with a 593dam H5 ridge sliding westward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures should eventually warm to
or slightly above average through the weekend and into early next
week. At the surface, high pressure should remain mostly in
control with an extended period of dry weather continuing through
the end of the long term period. The pressure gradient between the
high to the north and lower pressures over the southern Gulf and
western Caribbean will produce quite the easterly fetch over the
Gulf, however, the stronger winds and highest seas look to remain
over the open Gulf south of our region. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
VFR conditions expected through this cycle (and beyond). East or
Northeast winds should continue to decrease today for most
terminals. However, MSY and NEW may hold a bit stronger winds
given the fetch off the lake with even these sites dropping the
winds shortly after sunset this evening. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Small craft advisories will continue through around sunrise.
Thereafter, cautionary headlines were needed respectively through
the rest of the morning through overnight tonight. Additional
cautionary headlines may be needed for the outer Gulf waters
through the rest of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend as
pressure gradient remains rather tight between high pressure to
the north and northeast and lower pressure across the western
Caribbean. This should keep at least moderate easterly winds
around through Sunday afternoon before high pressure settles into
the region and helping relax the surface flow. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 43 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 48 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 47 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 75 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 75 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 46 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:37 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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