PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:06 PM EDT122
FXUS61 KPBZ 221806
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through
Wednesday morning. Isolated rain chances return Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday. Seasonable temperatures to above
average temperatures expected to end the week with another
chance for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and quiet weather will continue under high pressure;
above average temperatures are expected
- A few climate sites might tie and/or break the daily record
high temp
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A ridge axis remains stationary over the East Coast this
morning, above average temperatures will continue across the
region. The 12Z PIT sounding depicts a warm layer (14C to 18C)
just above the surface to 850mb, warmer than yesterday. With
diurnal mixing, temperatures will likely climb into the
low-80s. Sites that might break or tie the record this afternoon
include:
ZZV....82F; 1979, 1947, 1920
DUJ....77F; 1979, 2020
HLG....82F; 1947
PHD....83F; 1979
A shortwave will advance northeastward out of the western Great
Lakes tonight, crossing the region late tonight. Displacement
of the moisture/jet northward should limit the areal coverage of
increased clouds overnight while greatly minimizing
precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return by Wednesday night to
early Thursday.
- Wind gusts could range from 30 to 35mph with the passage of
the front; a Special Weather Statement may be issued for fire
weather potential.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A cold front will approach and cross the region Wednesday
afternoon/evening. While moisture and lift will be more
favorable for a few showers with the second shortwave, both are
still less than optimal for anything more than minimal rainfall
amounts and scattered precip coverage. With shallow CAPE values
ranging between 50J/kg to 150J/kg, there could be a few
lightning strikes in the late evening before dark.
As well as light precip chances, the cold front will prompt wind
gusts between 25mph to 30mph. With low fuel moistures and an
uptick in the gradient wind, a Special Weather Statement for
elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow.
Light lake enhanced precip and upsloping may create precip
accumulation on the backside of the front along the ridges and
near I-80 early Thursday morning. Otherwise, temperatures will
likely return to near-normal Thursday and clouds will thin
during the morning with diurnal mixing of dry air aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ridging will return above average temps Friday
- Large variability in the pattern over the weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensemble models are in agreement that a brief period
of ridging will return warm conditions across the Ohio River
Valley Friday. The 25th to 75th percentile has temperatures
ranging between low-70s to mid-60s.
Large run-to-run variability continues Saturday into Sunday.
According to the grand ensembles, 55% of the variability is
depending on the overall intensity of the wave over the Great
Lakes. Saturday could trend near seasonable in a troughing
pattern and lake enhanced precip may follow. However, if the
ridge axis dominates temperatures could return into the mid
and/or low-70s Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with light wind is expected through the TAF
period. Some cirrus out ahead of low pressure centered across
the Midwest states will overspread this evening. There is the
potential for LLWS tonight, primarily after 06z, for sites from
PIT and west as a shallow nocturnal stable layer relaxes the
surface wind while a southwesterly low level jet overspreads the
region. With some uncertainty how far east the core of the jet
progresses, and thus if LLWS criteria is met, will hold out
mention in the TAFs for this cycle until the latest model data
arrives later this morning, but probability is highest for ZZV
and FKL.
High pressure begins to slide out of the area on Wednesday and
the gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front.
Mixing down of the aforementioned jet favor southwesterly gusts
to 15-20 knots during the daytime hours.
.Outlook...
Persistence of VFR favored through a large portion of Wednesday
until a crossing cold front usher in scattered showers and low
probability restrictions (20-30% probability mainly around
FKL/DUJ).
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:06 PM EDT---------------
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