IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:40 AM EDT728
FXUS63 KIWX 201040
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and very dry afternoons today through Tuesday will lead
to some risk in any fire ignition in dead brush and dry grass.
- Scattered showers during the middle of this week and some low
rain chances over this coming weekend will do little to ease
the ongoing severe drought over much of the area.
- Very warm days and cool nights will start the week with highs
approaching or in the lower 80s with nighttime lows in the
40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
An expansive upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure
area with a 1036 mb center pressure extended from West Virginia to
Upstate New York. This system will remain dominant over the Midwest
and Ohio Valley regions through Monday. Dramatic diurnal ranges up
to 40 degrees yesterday will be repeated today as early morning lows
from 36 to 40 soar into well into the 70s with a super adiabatic
lapse rate aided by the ongoing drought conditions in combination
with low dew points and dry ground conditions. Coordinated a mention
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product with the Chicago office
to mention a risk of brush and field fires as afternoon relative
humidities fall near or below 25%. Continued to favor increasing
the blend forecast high temperatures and lowering the blend lows.
Very warm 850 mb temperatures support highs near or topping 80
Monday (98th percentile in both the SPC upper air and surface
climatology).
Downstream teleconnections of a massive upper ridge near the
Aleutian Islands will prevent most cold air from reaching into
the forecast area through next weekend. There was little change
in the updated CPC 8-14 Day outlook with nearly all of the
CONUS east of the Rockies >70% chance for temperatures above
normal.
Downstream of the large Pacific block, the upper low was
completely cut off over Arizona. This low will eventually eject
northeast into an initially dry atmospheric environment. Given
the latest GFS and model blend, limited the light showers to
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Light showers are also possible
this weekend with some Pacific energy arriving, but rainfall
coverage and amounts will be limited and not likely to have an
impact on the worsening drought conditions. Chilly air will make
a brief return Thursday, but temperatures should stay above
freezing through next weekend. The coolest nights should be
Wednesday night and Thursday night before temperatures rise back
above normal Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Slight increase in wind speeds at KSBN today as surface high
drifts SE. Otherwise remaining mostly sunny/VFR given strong
ridge aloft and abundant dry air through the column.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:40 AM EDT---------------
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