JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 7:12 PM EDT021
FXUS63 KJKL 222312
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather looks to hold through the remainder of the work
week.
- A warm bout will last through Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures running around 10 degrees above seasonable normal
values of 65 to 70 degrees.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
Benign weather will continue throughout the short-term despite
multiple upper level and surface disturbances.
A weakening upper level low will move through the Ohio Valley by
this evening and overnight, exiting and continuing to weaken by
Wednesday morning. Upper level troughing will remain in place
through the rest of the short-term portion of the forecast, with
lowering heights and another shortwave developing across the region
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
At the surface, high pressure will remain in control across the
eastern portion of the Commonwealth into the first part of
Wednesday, keeping conditions calm despite the passing shortwave. In
fact, the only impacts from this passing wave will be a few high
clouds, and perhaps some wind shear that could affect aviation for a
couple hours in the northern portion of the CWA in the early morning
hours Wednesday. This area of high pressure will eventually shift
east of the state during the day Wednesday as the next developing
shortwave moves into the region. This next wave will also result in
a surface low pressure system in eastern Canada, along with a cold
front that will stretch down into Kentucky. However, all models show
any moisture associated with this system contained well north of the
state. By 0Z Thursday, the front will have moved through eastern KY,
giving way to northerly winds, and another large area of surface
high pressure which will settle across the state throughout the
overnight.
This cold front will bring a cooler airmass into the region. While
lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s, post
frontal temperatures on Wednesday night will generally be in the
upper 30s and low 40s, around 10 degrees cooler. Meanwhile,
southwest flow heading into the day Wednesday will warm temperatures
back in the upper 70s, much like today. Post frontal high
temperatures on Thursday - as we transition into the extended period
- should remain in the 60 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
The models were all in agreement that the extended period of the
forecast will feature mainly quiet weather, as high pressure will be
the main weather maker for eastern Kentucky. The first ridge will be
pulling out of the area early Friday afternoon, as a fast moving
cold front approaches from the west. This front is expected to move
through the region Friday night into Saturday, and will be
accompanied by isolated to scattered rain showers in the low
moisture environment. The last few showers should be ending by early
Saturday afternoon, as the front exits to the east. After that,
another well developed ridge will overspread the region from the
west, and will remain in place through the end of the forecast
period. The ridges will provide conditions that will favor nightly
ridge valley temperature splits. Temperatures will max out in the
upper 70s on Friday, after a period of light west to southwesterly
flow brings warmer air into the area. After the front has gone on
Saturday, we will likely see several days in a row with slightly
above normal highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There will also
be a couple of cooler days with below normal daytime highs on
Thursday and Sunday, as the incoming ridges fully settle over the
region, along with their accompanying cooler air. No weather hazards
expected in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
After a few high clouds passing by this evening, clear skies are
expected through the remainder of the overnight, with increasing
mid- and high-level clouds during the daytime hours Wednesday
ahead of a frontal passage toward the end of the TAF period.
However, outside of some valley fog in the river valleys removed
from TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
South to southwest winds will gradually increase overnight over
far northern and western parts of eastern Kentucky, especially
just off the surface above the shallow nighttime inversion. For
this reason, included a brief mention of LLWS at KSYM from around
10z to 12z Wednesday, with an overall increasing trend in winds
out of the southwest at all terminals after 12z and before 18z.
The wind direction will shift increasingly westerly as a fast-
moving front grazes the region to the northeast primarily toward
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 7:12 PM EDT---------------
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