CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 7:07 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...382
FXUS61 KCLE 222307
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
707 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge exits toward the New England coast as a
cold front approaches from the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This front will sweep eastward across our region late Wednesday
morning through the afternoon. Behind the front, another ridge
builds from the north-central United States through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
715 pm update...
No forecast adjustments were needed with this evening update.
Previous discussion...
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft impacts the Lake Erie
region and Upper OH Valley through Wednesday. Embedded in this
flow, a shortwave trough advances E'ward through our CWA tonight
as another shortwave trough approaches from the Canadian
Prairies and vicinity. At the surface, a ridge exits E'ward as a
cold front approaches from the Upper MS River Valley and
vicinity. This front is expected to sweep E'ward through our CWA
during the late morning through late afternoon hours of
Wednesday. Behind this front, another ridge begins to build from
the north-central United States. Low- level WAA ahead of the
cold front will contribute to a balmy night tonight for late
October in northern OH and NW PA. Lows are expected to reach the
50's to lower 60's around daybreak Wednesday. During the day on
Wednesday, peeks of sunshine and continued low-level WAA are
expected to allow highs to reach the lower to mid 70's before
the cold front ushers-in a colder air mass.
Primarily fair weather is expected through Wednesday due to
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the departing ridge and
limited low-level moisture along/ahead of the cold front.
However, mid/upper-level cloud cover associated with moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the first shortwave trough axis may
produce isolated sprinkles tonight, especially over/near Lake
Erie. Behind the cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist WNW'erly
to NW'erly mean-level flow over/downwind of ~16C Lake Erie and
appreciable lake-induced CAPE will allow scattered lake-effect
rain showers to impact the primary snowbelt and vicinity in NE
OH and NW PA late Wednesday afternoon through sunset that
evening.
W'erly flow aloft becomes NW'erly Wednesday night as the second
aforementioned shortwave trough sweeps E'ward across our CWA and
is followed by a shortwave ridge building from the Upper
Midwest. The surface portion of this ridge will continue to
build from the western Great Lakes. Lingering lake-effect rain
showers over and generally southeast of Lake Erie, in/near the
primary snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA, are expected to end by
late evening as lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air
advection and a lowering subsidence inversion. Otherwise fair
weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge. Low-level CAA, partial clearing, and a weakening MSLP
gradient accompanying the ridge are expected to result in fairly
efficient nocturnal cooling Wednesday evening through daybreak
Thursday morning. Lows are expected to reach mainly the mid 30's
to mid 40's.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area will be under high pressure behind a cold front on
Thursday and dry weather should be expected with significantly
cooler temperatures expected with mainly 50s for highs. A warm
front will move through the area for Friday, allowing for some
rain potential and recovering temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s. A cold front will move through for Friday night and allow
for temperatures to come back down with residual rain in far NE
OH and NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some lingering rain showers are possible in NE OH and NW PA with
a cold air advection regime over Lake Erie, but drying air
should allow for rain potential to fade quickly. Otherwise, the
long term forecast period currently looks uneventful with high
pressure building across the region supporting another period of
dry weather conditions. Temperatures will improve daily to go
from below normal to above normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High and
mid level clouds will increase during the next 24 hours. Winds
will be from the south and southwest 8 to 12 knots tonight.
Gusty southwest winds will increase 12 to 18 knots on Wednesday
with gust up to 25 knots. A low level jet will increase tonight
and may develop some non-convective low level wind shear between
06z and 12z tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered lake-effect rain
showers in NE OH and NW PA Wednesday evening. Scattered rain
showers with non-VFR are also possible this Friday through
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient will increase across the lake tonight into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Southerly flow
will increase to 20 kt or so around daybreak on Wednesday. With
the cold front sweeping across the lake on Wednesday, waves will
then build along the nearshore waters. Therefore, will issue a
Small Craft Advisory for the lake for Wednesday and Wednesday
night for elevated winds and waves. High pressure across the
region will diminish the flow across the lake for Thursday,
ending any hazardous marine conditions. A warm front will cross
the lake for Friday, followed by a cold front on Friday night.
This will allow for a window of elevated winds and waves for
Friday into Saturday and an additional marine headline is
possible later this week. High pressure will build into the
region for Saturday night and beyond and benign marine weather
conditions will return to the basin.
&&
.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warm high
temperatures on Tuesday afternoon, October 22nd. Here are the
record warm high temperatures at area climate sites:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-22 83(1920) 79(2020) 81(1947) 80(1920) 80(1979) 84(1979)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for
LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday
for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Sefcovic
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 7:07 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...---------------
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