JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 10:20 AM EDT513
FXUS63 KJKL 221420
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1020 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather looks to hold through the remainder of the work
week.
- A warm bout will last through Wednesday with afternoon
temperatures running around 10 degrees above seasonable normal
values of 65 to 70 degrees.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
Forecast is still well on track. Loaded in the latest
observations to make sure the temperatures and winds in the grids
were on track with the current conditions. All updates have been
published and sent to NDFD/web.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to slide east of the
state. This has brought another night of good radiational cooling
and the resultant moderate to large difference in temperatures
from the deeper valleys to the ridges. Specifically, readings
range from the upper 30s in the sheltered low spots to the mid
50s on the ridges. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 40s across the area, amid light to calm winds. So far, per
satellite imagery, the fog appears to be more patchy even in the
river valleys than the past few nights.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through most of the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict an initial shortwave
trough weakening and lifting through the Ohio Valley today with
the core of its energy staying well north of Kentucky. Later
Wednesday another quick moving 5h trough moves into the Great
Lakes and northern Ohio Valley from Canada bringing late day
height falls to the area. This trough arrives a bit quicker in the
GFS ensembles than those of the stronger ECMWF. For now, will go
with a blend of these differences as represented by the NBM. Did
also continue with some fairly substantive adjustments to include
more terrain distinctions in temperatures early this morning and
again tonight.
Sensible weather features a continuation of the dry weather
through the short term as the high pressure remains dominant and
even an approaching cold front merely increases clouds and takes
the light winds up a notch for Wednesday afternoon. This will
mean above normal high temperatures and dry humidities along with
a ridge to valley difference in temperatures at night and some
patchy valley fog towards dawn Wednesday.
The changes to the NBM starting point again mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a
faster valley drop off after dark tonight along with lower
afternoon dewpoints and humidities on account of good and deep
mixing. As for PoPs: kept them about zero through Wednesday
evening - in line with the NBM and all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
The forecast period begins with a weak but dry cold front passing
through the area. High pressure will slowly be nudging into the area
post-frontal Thursday but upper-level northwesterly flow will bring
the above average temperatures back to more seasonal normals for
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures begin to rise once again Friday
as another shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of the Central
Plains into the Great Lakes. This boundary contains more moisture
and therefore will bring a better chance (20-40%) of showers to the
area for Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will
build back into the area for Saturday evening and will remain
persistent through much of the forecast period. Models continue to
remain in solid agreement with another system developing in the
Central Plains for early next week which could bring another
potential round of showers for the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
At TAF sites, expect clear skies, light and variable winds, and
VFR conditions. For the river valleys, though, fog is expected to
develop producing localized areas of IFR or worse conditions. Any
fog clears out by 13Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 10:20 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
