IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:45 AM EDT793
FXUS63 KIWX 191045
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers during the middle of this upcoming week will
do little to ease the ongoing severe drought over much of the
area.
- Other than the scattered mid week showers, dry weather is
ahead with warm highs in the 70s through Tuesday with chilly
lows in the 40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
A very pronounced upper level ridge and associated surface high
pressure area will remain dominant over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
regions through early next week. Temperatures will continue to
recover on the west side of the high pressure area. Given the
ongoing drought conditions in combination with low dew points and
dry ground conditions, large diurnal spreads (33F to 37F were common
yesterday when the normal diurnal spread is around 20F) will
continue with warm highs and chilly lows. Tended to increase the
blend high temperatures and lower the blend lows. Very warm 850
mb temperatures support highs in the upper 70s Monday (97th
percentile in both the SPC upper air and surface climatology).
Teleconnections of a massive 20 decimeter (200 meter) positive
anomaly near 170W (Aleutian Islands) will prevent most cold air
from intruding into the forecast area (and even way past the
focus of this discussion). This is a high confidence scenario
with a +0.90 correlation coefficient on the CPC 500 mb analogs
and is reflected on the latest CPC 8-14 Day outlook with nearly
all of the CONUS east of the Rockies >70% chance for temperatures
above normal.
Downstream of the large Pacific block, the upper low became cut off
over Arizona since yesterday. This low will remain cutoff until an
upstream upper level trof ejects this system northeast into an
initially dry atmospheric environment. Scattered showers are
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday night, but rainfall
coverage and amounts will be limited and not likely to have an
impact on the worsening drought conditions. Chilly air will make
a brief return Thursday, but temperatures should not fall much
below normal. The coolest nights should be Wednesday night and
Thursday night before temperatures rise back above normal
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Ideal aviation conditions will persist through the period with
light winds and clear skies thanks to strong, blocking ridge of
high pressure.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:45 AM EDT---------------
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