JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:35 AM EDT042
FXUS63 KJKL 211135 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected to hold through the work week.
- A warming trend will last through Wednesday with afternoon
temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable
normal values of 65 to 70 degrees. This is followed by a modest
drop in temperatures behind a cold front late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
No substantial changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding in place over
eastern Kentucky. This have brought another night of good
radiational cooling to the area resulting in a fairly large ridge
to valley temperature split as readings currently range from the
mid and upper 30s in the sheltered low spots to the lower 50s on
the hilltops. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the middle 30s to
lower and middle 40s amid light winds. Similar to last night, we
are seeing areas of fog in the river valleys on satellite - likely
locally dense near bodies of water.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict 5h ridging shrinking back to the
southwest today as a closed low trough rolls east out of the
Central Plains. Some mid level energy does drop south and weaken
through the eastern portion of the area today. The trough to the
northwest starts to move into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday with weak
height falls through the northern part of the state but any energy
associated with the negative anomaly staying well to the north.
The persistent small model spread again supports the NBM solution
for the starting point of the grids though with fairly
substantive adjustments to add in more terrain distinctions in
temperatures early this morning and again tonight.
Sensible weather features more dry and mild weather with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s each afternoon. Tonight
will see the similar conditions of the past several nights
including fog along the river channels late and ridge to valley
temperature differences. Do also expect a stronger mix down of dry
air aloft each afternoon, as well, leading to lower RH values and
dewpoints than modeled in the NBM.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of adjusting
the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a faster
valley drop off after dark tonight along with lower afternoon
dewpoints and humidities. As for PoPs: kept them about zero
through Tuesday evening - in line with the NBM and all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
Persistence forecasting is on tap for the long-term forecast period
as high pressure continues to remain dominate over the area.
However, a surface feature is forecast to eject out of the Central
Plains into the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to
cross through the region early Wednesday afternoon but due to a
widespread lack of moisture, the front is expected to be a dry cold
front. Ahead of the front, highs are expected to climb into upper-
70s to low-80s.
Weak high pressure will build back into the region as the center of
the high drifts into the Ohio Valley. Upper-level northwesterly flow
will usher CAA back into the region and bring highs back down to
more seasonal normals. Models begin to hint at another surface
feature developing and tracking into the Great Lakes with a cold
front trailing behind the surface feature. Again, moisture will be
lacking but long-term deterministic and their ensembles try bring at
least a little bit of PoP into the region for Friday into Saturday
and therefore, opted to add 15-20% PoP through Saturday morning.
High pressure returns for Saturday afternoon and will linger through
the rest of the weekend.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by multiple cold fronts
passing through the region. The first one will be largely dry but
will bring near seasonal temperatures for Thursday after above
average temperatures for Wednesday. A second cold front will move
through the area for Friday into Saturday with a chance for isolated
to scattered showers with high pressure returning by Saturday
afternoon and remaining through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
Clear skies and VFR conditions with light and variable winds will
prevail through much of the forecast period at the TAF sites. Some
fog along river valleys and lakes will dissipate over the next
hour or so and can be expected to form again late tonight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:35 AM EDT---------------
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