LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:56 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...961
FXUS64 KLIX 160456
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Have actually had isolated thunderstorms develop over the coastal
waters near and east of Southwest Pass over the last 90 minutes,
and added thunder to the grids in that area. Drier air has arrived
in the New Orleans Metro Area in the last hour or so with dew
points falling below 60. Generally things are on track.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Overall, forecast is in decent shape. Upper shortwave is near
Interstate 40 this evening. While the old frontal boundary remains
south of Interstate 10, the increase in northerly winds that
brings in the colder air appears to have moved south of Interstate
20 in the last hour or so, and will likely move through our area
in the next 3-6 hours. Dew points across south Mississippi have
already been trending downward this evening, and will likely
update hourly temperature and dew point trends every hour or two.
Unlikely to update public forecast prior to the arrival of the
increased winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
A dry cold front will move through the area tonight overnight into
Wednesday morning. While this won't bring rain, it will be fairly
windy, especially for coastal areas with winds 10-15mph expected
with gusts up to 20-25mph possible. With the dry air, relative
humidities will be fairly low tomorrow as well around 20-25%.
These conditions combined with dry fuel on the ground will cause
critical fire weather conditions tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning will
be in effect tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.
Relative humidities will remain low through the end of the
workweek, but winds should be gradually improving starting
tomorrow. No rain expected for the short term forecast, but the
temperatures will be wonderful. The high temperatures will be
around 70 degrees tomorrow with lows in the mid 50s tomorrow and
mid 40s on Thursday. So, expect cool and dry weather for the next
few days, but be mindful of cigarettes and try not to park your
car on the grass, etc. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Thursday through the weekend, conditions will remain dry and mild.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the
low to mid 50s. No rain is expected, looking at the models.
Relative humidities should be improving away from critical levels
this weekend as well. Overall, expect a very nice and cool Fall
weekend! MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
A bit more cloud cover than earlier expected with several
terminals reporting ceilings in the FL040-060 range. Do expect
those clouds to eventually mix out as colder and drier air
continues to pour into the area. Northerly winds have started to
increase with several terminals reporting gusts to 20 knots or
more. Based on evening upper air soundings and forecast soundings,
not quite enough of a layer difference to justify LLWS in the
terminals as sustained winds at 2000 feet look to be less than 30
knots at this time. Winds will remain gusty through much of the
daytime hours before relaxing toward sunset Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
An approaching dry cold front will bring gusty winds for the
marine areas. Winds 20-30mph are expected with gusts of 40-45mph
tonight through tomorrow morning. A Gale Warning is in effect for
all marine areas from just after midnight through 1PM tomorrow. A
Small Craft advisory is in effect ahead of the front tonight and
as the system starts tapering off during the day tomorrow. Winds
will be primarily northerly to northeasterly tonight through
Thursday morning. Then winds will be mainly easterly to
northeasterly Thursday through the weekend. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 46 67 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 53 73 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 51 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 58 70 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 52 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 51 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
077-080>082.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday
for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:56 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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