IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:28 PM EDT837
FXUS63 KIWX 171628
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1228 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steadily warming temperatures through the weekend with highs well
into the 70s by Sunday.
- The next low chance of rain is not until Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Surface temps generally in mid 30s at press time. Temps holding
slightly higher across our N/NE due to higher dewpoints from
residual lake moisture plume. No changes to the going headline
though with lows generally around 32F still expected along with
widespread, heavy frost due to relatively high dewpoints. Even some
patchy ground fog in spots. This is unlikely to cause significant
travel impacts but does point to a heavy frost in those areas. Still
expect sufficiently cold temps/frost to end the growing season
today. Surface high drifts east today allowing for some very minor
southerly flow/WAA. More sun compared to yesterday will also help
push afternoon highs into the low 60s. Mid 30s expected again
tonight under clear skies and light winds. Patchy frost is possible
but with the end of the growing season do not anticipate any
headlines and will forgo any mention in the grids. It is a marginal
setup anyway with lows 35-37 and a light southerly wind.
Rest of the forecast remains very quiet and pleasant. Another strong
mid/upper ridge takes shape over the eastern third of North America
with bookend closed upper lows yielding a very slowly-evolving
pattern. Net result in terms of sensible weather is a prolonged
period of dry/mostly sunny conditions with steadily warming temps in
(slowly) increasing SW flow. Weekend weather looks spectacular with
low/mid 70s and ample sun. Southwest CONUS upper low does eventually
get ejected NE by early next week. Weakening midlevel vort max and
poor moisture return/instability suggest a low chance of light rain
on Tue. Cooler temps then return behind the associated cold front by
Thu of next week, though still at or even slightly above normal
for late Oct.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Quiet aviation weather will continue this period as a low level
ridge maintains its influence on the region. This low level
ridge will shift slightly eastward into Friday morning setting
up from the eastern Great Lakes into eastern TN by daybreak
Friday. Weak southerly return flow will develop on backside of
this high with weak low level warm advection across the region.
The combination of this weak warm advection and weak southerly
flow should tend to limit coverage of any patchy shallow ground
fog Friday morning and will not include in terminal forecast at
this time. Wind speeds should remain 10 knots or less during
peak mixing this afternoon and again on Friday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:28 PM EDT---------------
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