PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:59 AM EDT889
FXUS61 KPBZ 190759
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures
through the middle of next week. Rain chances return late
Wednesday and Thursday with a crossing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
centered over the region through most of the day. This will mean
another day of plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. The
combination of minor warm air advection aloft, full sun, and a
very dry surface will work to push temperatures close to 10
degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and a warming trend through the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain centered across the Ohio/Upper Ohio
Valley region through early next week. Some decrease in 500mb
heights is progged on Sunday as the upper level flow turns NW
thanks to a weak shortwave trough swinging through. This will
not interrupt the dry weather and mainly clear skies.
Similar temperatures to today are expected Sunday, before
rising 500mb heights and warmer 850mb temperatures result in
highs in the mid 70s for much of the area by Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to gradually warm each night, with
some river valley steam fog possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm through mid week
- Rain chances return late Wednesday with a crossing cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a ridge will persist across much of the
Eastern CONUS through midweek. This will maintain dry weather
and above average temperatures across the area.
A weakening trough is progged to advance out of the Plains
region later Tuesday, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region
Wednesday. This should result in some increase in cloud cover,
and a slight decrease in temperatures on Wednesday.
A second, stronger trough and associated surface cold front,
are expected to track eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley
region late Wednesday. Shower chances will increase with the
approach and passage of the front Wednesday night. Cooler
weather and minimal shower chances continue part of Thursday in
cool NW flow, and as the upper trough axis crosses the region.
Temperatures should return to near seasonable levels after the
mid week FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with light wind is expected through the TAF period as high
pressure remains dominant. River valley fog is expected though
impact at terminals will be limited to FKL, where brief
reductions from 10-13Z are possible.
.Outlook...
High pressure should maintain VFR conditions and light winds
into early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:59 AM EDT---------------
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