IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:16 PM EDT292
FXUS63 KIND 191616
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet, pleasant weather expected through at least early next week
- Near to above-average temperatures favored through the weekend and
into next week
- The next chance for rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 827 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Surface high pressure and upper ridging, from New England to the
South, along with a very dry column per Hi-Res soundings will
continue to mean clear skies, not only for central Indiana, but also
for the bulk of the eastern United States today. The full sunshine
will allow temperatures rebound to above normal with afternoon highs
mostly in the lower 70s on tap.
Despite the RH expected to drop slightly below 30% this afternoon
and fuel moistures approaching 8%, the light 20 foot winds will mean
wildfire spread will not be a big concern.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over
the eastern half of the CONUS. The high appeared centered over NY
and PA, but stretched west into the Ohio Valley and then across the
deep south. The strong surface high and subsidence across the area
was resulting in the nearest clouds to Indiana being nearly 600
miles away. Aloft, water vapor showed strong ridging in place over
the east coast while a deep trough was found across the west coast
along with an upper low that was becoming cut-off over the
southwestern states. There was a resultant southwest flow of
moisture over the plains states. Winds were calm across Central
Indiana and dew points were in the 30s.
Today and tonight -
More Quiet, pleasant weather is expected today and tonight.
The strong ridge in place over the east coast is expected to
continue to shift east today, but an overall blocking pattern aloft
is expected to remain in place. As the upper low over the southwest
continues to spin today and tonight, a new upper ridge develops over
the plains. This will once again bring subsidence to Central Indiana
along with a reorganization of the surface high pressure system. The
high will slowly retrograde and settle over the Ohio Valley through
tonight. Forecast soundings and time height sections continue to
show a very dry column across the area. Thus a continued sunny day
is in store along with a clear night tonight. Overall there is
little change in the temperature of the air mass. Thus highs today
will only be at or slightly above persistence, in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Expect lows again tonight in lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Sunday through Monday -
More quiet and warm weather will be expected on Sunday and Monday.
Models suggest a second strong ridge to remain over the region on
Sunday and Monday, keeping the strong surface high over the
southeastern states and east coast. This will result in slightly
warmer southerly flow to Central Indiana, along with increasing
temperatures. Again, forecast soundings show a dry column on these
days. Thus more sunny days and clear nights with temperatures at or
just warmer than persistence.
Tuesday and Wednesday -
Models suggest the upper low from the southwestern states will push
northeast to Illinois on Tuesday as it weakens into just a short wave
embedded within the flow aloft. This wave looks to pass across
Indiana on Tuesday afternoon and evening, providing ample forcing
dynamics. However moisture still remains a problem as gulf moisture
fails to arrive. Thus small chances for rain in the afternoon and
evening seem reasonable as these forcing features pass. Any rainfall
amounts should be light.
Another round of showers will be possible on Wednesday night as a
strong cold front and a secondary wave appear to pass across Central
Indiana. Stronger forcing appears to accompany this front as
compared to the previous system, and forecast soundings have trended
towards more saturation than previous runs. Furthermore a very
strong change in air mass is expected in the wake of the front. At
this time confidence for rain is highest on Wednesday, due to the
better organized dynamics, although again, precipitation amounts
will be light.
Thursday and Friday -
Strong high pressure is expected to settle across Central Indiana on
Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front. As the high arrives a
much cooler air will arrive with it. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will only reach the upper 50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
Broad high pressure, from New england to the southern states, and a
very dry column per Hi-Res soundings will result in clear skies and
calm or very light SSW winds. There is a vry small chance of brief
MVFR or worse, very shallow fog 09z-12z at the smaller airports.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:16 PM EDT---------------
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