LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:24 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...777
FXUS63 KLMK 200524
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Beautiful weather over the weekend. Temperatures in the low to
mid 70s for Sunday.
* Well above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday with
mostly dry weather.
* Midweek cold front to bring a return to near normal temperatures
and a small chance for showers.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Sfc high pressure now parked over the Virginias, but still holding
enough influence over the lower Ohio Valley to set up another
favorable radiational cooling night. Ridge/valley splits are again
quite pronounced, with temps running near 60 in urban areas and on
the ridge tops, but as cool as the mid 40s in some of the valleys.
That gap did close slightly last night, and may close even more
overnight tonight. Forecast mins are close to persistence and that
seems to be on track. No updates planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
A 1036mb sfc high sits over the eastern US today, which is keeping a
strong influence on tranquil weather for us. Temperatures have
reached the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon, with plenty of
sunshine. A few thin clouds are moving across south-central Kentucky
today, but the dry conditions will remain.
For tonight, the weak shortwave near the Great Lakes region will
flatten out the eastern US ridge, though strong surface high
pressure will continue to influence quiet weather across our region.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight with light and variable winds.
This should make for a great radiational cooling night, with
temperatures getting down to the lower 40s for most locations. Our
common cool spots or low-lying areas could possibly have
temperatures in the upper 30s. Patchy dense fog will be most likely
near the river valleys before sunrise tomorrow.
For tomorrow, any morning river valley fog should burn off after
sunrise, leading to another sunny day for the region. Surface high
pressure will continue with afternoon temperatures reaching the low-
to-mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Synopsis...Mid-level pattern at the beginning of the period will
still depict an anomalous ridge extending across the Eastern and
Central US attached to a subtropical high retrograding along the
Gulf of Mexico and a cut-off low over the Four Corners ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. During the first half of next week, the
Pacific trough will help eject the upper low towards the Plains and
eventually the Midwest while the northern extent of the ridge moves
to the east and the subtropical high keeps tracking towards northern
Mexico. The Pacific trough will eventually move across the US/Canada
border and amplify southward into the Mid Atlantic thanks to the
TUTT near Bermudas, supporting a frontal passage during the second
half of the week.
Model Confidence/Evaluation...There is good model agreement among
the global deterministic guidance through Wednesday regarding the
large-scale pattern evolution. On the other hand, uncertainty
increases by the end of the week associated with the trough
amplification over the East CONUS and especially the upstream
shortwave energy track and intensity. Most of the consulted guidance
is showing at least one compact shortwave trough moving close enough
to the forecast area to increases rain chances, but confidence in
this scenario is ow at the moment. There is high confidence in the
temperature oscillation thorughout the week.
Sunday Night - Wednesday...First period will be characterized by a
warming trend and overall dry conditions. Little change from surface
high pressure and dry airmass that has kept the region rain free.
Surface winds shifting from the south to the southwest will foment
well above average temperatures with highs reaching the 80-degree
mark Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, as well. Pressure gradient
could be strong enough on Wednesday to support breezy winds. Cloud
coverage will increase by midweek as the upper heights steadily fall
ahead of the trough/cold front.
Thursday - Sunday...Cold front will swing by the region Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Northerly winds will allow CAA and
temperatures returning to near seasonal values for October. There is
a small chance of isolated showers during the frontal passage, but
limited moisture and weak forcing keeps confidence low to include it
in this forecast package. There might a better chance of
precipitation next weekend with subtle theta-e advection and enough
lifting from the upstream shortwave troughs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
With strong sfc high pressure centered over the region VFR flight
categories will continue through the forecast period. Winds will
remain calm to light through the period and while some patchy fog is
possible, given current temperatures, decided to take the mention of
of MVFR VIS out of the forecast for BWG. It is still possible but
confidence seems very low.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:24 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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