IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 2:10 PM EDT379
FXUS63 KIWX 161810
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread frost with lows near freezing early Thursday.
* Dry with temperatures steadily on the rise Thursday through early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Surface high pressure will build in tonight with optimal radiational
cooling likely leading to widespread frost and lows near freezing.
Lingering lake clouds should thin/scatter into the evening thanks to
backing flow trajectories and the overspread of a very dry/subsident
air mass, though some lingering pockets of stratocu remain possible
into early Thursday. Ensemble probs are generally around 50% for
lows of <=32F, and >80% for lows <=34F, making the freeze vs
frost headline debatable. Per collaboration (and simplicity
given the time of year and lacking impact with lower sun angle
ending the growing season), opted for a Freeze Warning with lows
generally averaging out in the 30-33F range.
Thursday through early next week will feature a stretch of pleasant
fall weather with moderating temperatures, abundant sunshine, light
winds and dry conditions. A building Eastern CONUS mid-upper level
ridge, and an associated dry/stable air mass, will be the provider
with cool mornings (mid 30s to mid 40s) and mild afternoons (highs
near 70F Fri-Sun).
The ridge axis does look to break down toward the end of the
forecast period (Tue-Wed), with a stalled Four Corners upper low
eventually picked up in westerlies, potentially tracking through the
Midwest by this time with very low chances for showers (lacking
moisture/forcing) and cooler/seasonable temps in wake of an
associated cool front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
VFR lake effect clouds continue across northwest/north central
Indiana this afternoon. Progression of upstream low/mid level
ridge axis and entrainment of much drier low level
air/subsidence should allow the lake effect clouds to erode
early this evening. West-northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will
become light and variable this evening, and then light southerly
Thursday morning as the ridge slides off to the east. Mainly
clear skies are expected in wake of lake effect clouds this
afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Thursday for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 2:10 PM EDT---------------
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