JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 10:35 AM EDT618
FXUS63 KJKL 181435
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost is expected in valley locations again during late night
and early morning hours tonight through Saturday, with less
frost each successive night.
- A warming trend will carry through early next week, along with
dry weather.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2024
Forecast temperatures have been updated in short term to reflect
current observations. Frost Advisory has been allowed to expire as
current temperatures have warmed ending the threat of frost. Frost
potential and possible headlines will be reassessed for tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 743 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2024
Dawn low temperatures have been blended into today's forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2024
High pressure/ridging at all levels will remain over the region
through the short term period. Although low level temperature and
moisture advection will be near neutral, sunshine each day will work
at modifying/warming the air mass and evapotranspiration will allow
dew points to creep slightly higher. Even so, the air mass will
remain dry and lead to large diurnal temperature ranges, especially
for valleys, with swings of around 40 degrees forecast.
Light winds and good radiating conditions will allow min
temperatures cold enough for frost in many valleys again by dawn on
Saturday, while ridges remain warmer above the cold air which pools
below. Late night/early morning fog will occur in typical valley
locations for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2024
Mostly benign weather will be experienced across eastern Kentucky
in the extended portion of the forecast, due to the strong and
persistent ridging that will be in place, both aloft and at the
surface, across the eastern half of the nation. The ridging will
encompass a large swath that includes New England, the Great
Lakes, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Gulf coast states, the
eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic through the southeastern
CONUS along with the mid and lower Mississippi Valleys and the
eastern and southern Plains. While this ridging is in place,
conditions will be favorable for nightly ridge valley temperature
differences and large day/night temperature swings. Temperatures
may fall enough Saturday night to allow for patchy frost to form
in our deeper, most sheltered, and normally colder valleys.
Locations near bodies of water may also seem some patchy fog. Late
night and early morning fog are likely to occur across the area
through Wednesday night, as calm winds and cloudless skies are
expected.
Daytime temperatures Sunday through Wednesday are expected to be
above normal, sometimes by several degrees, as abundant sunshine
allows the air mass that will be in place to continue warming. We
might see pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday, as a weak
cold front is forecast to move through the region. This boundary
may have enough moisture to work with to spark isolated rain
showers as it moves through eastern Kentucky. This system looks
weak and somewhat lacking in moisture in the latest models, so
confidence is low that we will see any rain at all Wednesday night
and Thursday. After the front has moved through, a cooler air mass
will filter into the region, bringing with it slightly below
normal daytime highs in the low to mid 60s for most locations by
late Thursday.
Weather hazards in the extended are rather paltry at this time,
with frost and any isolated instances of locally dense fog being
the only things of note. Any frost that occurs in the extended
should take place Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as that
will be the time frame during which the coldest air will be in
place, especially in our central and northeastern valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2024
Valley fog will bring localized VLIFR conditions for a time this
morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning. Can't rule
out some brief impacts at TAF sites around dawn, but the
probability is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds will prevail through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 10:35 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
