CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:40 AM EDT929
FXUS61 KCLE 190740
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through the weekend
before gradually shifting towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast by
midweek. A cold front will move east across the area Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure will return by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area, allowing for
pleasant fall conditions to continue. Daytime highs will
continue to be slightly above average due to a light, but
persistent southwesterly flow as well as minimal cloud coverage.
Highs today will climb into upper 60s across eastern counties
and will likely reach the low 70s across western counties.
Sunday will be very similar, except highs across western
counties will continue to trend warmer, reaching into the low to
mid 70s. Overnight, lows will continue to drop into the upper
30s to low 40s, although wouldn't be surprised if there were
isolated cooler temperatures due to increased radiational
cooling. Will have to continue to monitor those temperature
trends for any potential frost headline needed, although most
areas have seen an end to the growing season.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
No significant changes to the forecast package as high pressure
remains in control of the short term forecast period with
temperatures above normal. Using some of the warmer guidance numbers
for the forecast high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, which
brings upper 70s for the former on Monday across the western third
of the CWA. In the meantime, an upper low ejects out of the four
corners region towards the southern Great Lakes, opening and filling
as it does so. Will not reach the CWA until the long term period.
POPs nil in the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper trough now an open wave will be barely distinguishable in the
500mb flow as it reaches the CWA Tuesday night and may only bring
cloud cover to the area. More significant trough in the northern
stream digs into the Great Lakes with an airmass changing cold front
late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. End of the work week
forecast high temperatures will be back in the 50s for the most part
after several days of above normal temperatures. Showers accompany
the cold front with the next chances for rain across the CWA, then
likely to see isolated/scattered lake effect rain showers across the
eastern lakeshore areas in the onshore cold flow through Friday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Fair weather due to a high pressure will allow for primarily VFR
conditions to continue to dominate this TAF period. There is
some patchy fog beginning to develop across the area, currently
only impacting KTOL with visibilities of 5SM. Not expecting fog
to become widespread, making confidence in it occurring at other
terminals low so opted to keep it out except for KTOL. By 13Z,
any fog that developed should quickly dissipate and conditions
will return to VFR.
Winds through the period will primarily be light and variable.
The exception will be at KERI and possibly KCLE where a weak
land breeze may develop for the remainder of tonight and again
on Saturday night. Winds associated with this land breeze will
remain below 10 knots.
Outlook...VFR expected through this Wednesday morning. Scattered
rain showers with non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon through
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
An increase in the pressure gradient Sunday means the southwesterly
winds across Lake Erie will kick up to 15kts with wave heights
increasing to 1-3ft for the nearshore and open water zones Cleveland
east to Dunkirk. Winds back below 10kts out of the southwest Monday
into Tuesday, and wave heights back below 2ft. Southwest winds then
increase again out of the southwest to 15kts Tuesday night into
Wednesday with wave heights again back to 1-3ft. A cold front late
Wednesday into Wednesday night brings northwest winds 15-25kts and
wave heights east of the islands to 4-6ft, gradually decreasing
Thursday and Friday as winds slowly ease.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013-014-
021>023-032-033.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:40 AM EDT---------------
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