CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 10:05 PM EDT612
FXUS61 KCLE 190205
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1005 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes will
gradually shift into the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic early
next week. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
10:05 EDT Update...
Clear sky, very weak or calm regional surface winds, and low
humidity at/near the surface will allow efficient radiational
cooling to persist through daybreak Saturday. This set-up will
be favorable for localized steam fog formation along streams,
rivers, and lakes, especially in rural areas, during the predawn
hours through daybreak. Diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer will begin soon after daybreak and cause fog to
dissipate by mid-morning. Forecast has been updated to reflect
these expectations. Rest of the forecast remains valid per
latest trends in obs and model guidance. Please see discussion
below for additional info.
Previous Discussion...
One more cold night is on tap as broad surface high pressure
centered over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes brings
strong radiational cooling beneath clear skies and light winds.
This will allow lows to dip into the lower/mid 30s over eastern
Ohio and western PA again. Issued a Frost Advisory for Summit,
Stark, Portage, Geauga, Mahoning, Trumbull, and Ashtabula Inland
Counties since they have yet to have a killing freeze.
Elsewhere, the growing season has ended, and lows will stay in
the upper 30s/low 40s in north central and NW Ohio as return
flow starts to develop behind the slowly departing high.
For Saturday, a weak northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough
will progress across the northern Great Lakes, reaching the New
England area Saturday night. Strong mid/upper ridging will
remain anchored across the central and eastern CONUS, only
flattening slightly as this shortwave passes to the north, and
with elongated surface high pressure remaining across the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic, expect mostly sunny skies to continue
Saturday. Continued light southerly flow will boost highs into
the upper 60s/low 70s, with the warmest readings occurring in
NW and north central Ohio. Lows Saturday night will be a bit
milder, with generally upper 30s/low 40s. Parts of interior NE
Ohio and NW PA could see a few mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period with high pressure covering most of
the eastern CONUS, though centered over southern Ohio Valley. High
pressure remains there Sunday night and Monday before gradually
moving east Monday night. Above normal temperatures will continue to
build, with temperatures running 10-15 above normal by Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above normal temperatures (by 10-15 degrees) continues on Tuesday as
high pressure, with a slight decrease to temperatures on Wednesday
as an upper-level trough approaches. This upper-level trough and
associated surface front cross the region sometime Wednesday night
into Thursday, with light precipitation falling mostly within a 6-12
hr window. PoPs are generally capped in the 30-60% range primarily
due to timing uncertainty but it's likely PoPs increase to 60+%
range areawide for sometime Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
as confidence increases for this system. Some lake effect showers
are possible, mainly in Northwest Pennsylvania Thursday through
Thursday night as cold air aloft moves overhead a warm Lake Erie.
High pressure gradually builds in on Thursday and Friday bringing
with it a cooler airmass, though ensemble guidance is tending to
bring temperatures back to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Clear sky, fair weather, and mainly VFR expected through
00Z/Sun. At the surface, a ridge remains anchored from the
southern Appalachians to the Adirondacks and continues to affect
NW PA and northern OH through the TAF period. Our regional winds
trend variable around 5 knots. However, a land breeze around 5
knots is expected over and within several miles of Lake Erie,
including at KCLE and KERI, from ~02Z/Sat to ~14:30Z/Sat.
Localized river valley steam fog is likely in NE OH and NW PA
between ~06Z/Sat and ~13Z/Sat. This fog and associated MVFR to
LIFR are not expected to impact any TAF site.
Outlook...VFR expected through this Wednesday morning. Scattered
rain showers with non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon through
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure is dominating the weather forecast with rather quiet
conditions on Lake Erie through most of the weekend and early next
week. As the high pressure settles south, southwest winds of 10-15
knots develop Sunday into Monday, with some 1-2 ft waves east of
Cleveland.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ013-014-
021>023-032-033.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 10:05 PM EDT---------------
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