BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 3:38 AM EDT008
FXUS61 KBOX 150738
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
338 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through Wednesday night, although it
will be blustery during the daylight hours with below normal
temperatures for mid-October. A distant low pressure system
could kick back an isolated shower or two for Cape Cod and
neighboring islands Thursday and Thursday night, then high
pressure builds in and brings dry and warmer temperatures into
mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:
Cold front has moved well offshore early this morning, leading
to a pretty chilly start to Tuesday AM when factoring in NW
breezes ranging between 5-15 mph, strongest east/south, lighter
in the interior. Current temps are in the upper 30s to mid 40s
pretty commonly, a few areas in western New England have
approached the freezing mark! While NWly gradient flow regime
prevails at sfc, deep longwave troughing at 500 mb spans a large
portion of the Gt Lakes and Northeast states, associated with
an intrusion of rather chilly air for mid-October. This longwave
trough is expected to govern our weather pattern through
midweek.
For today, we're looking at mostly clear to partly cloudy skies,
with greater cloud coverage in our northwestern towns and hills.
While we will have a good amount of sunshine, at least weak
925-850 mb cold advection will act to partly offset diurnal
warming. While NW breezes from yesterday have subsided, expect
NW gusts to redevelop around 20 to 25 mph by late-morning per
mixing progs in BUFKIT soundings. All told, today will be a dry
but also a blustery day with below normal temperatures. 925 mb
temps around 0 to +2C may only support highs reaching into the
lower to mid 50s in the valleys and cities, with highs only in
the 40s in the higher terrain. Note that normal highs for today
are around the mid 60s, so forecast highs are some 10 degrees
colder than normal, and it will feel that way with the
anticipated breeziness.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update:
Tonight and Wednesday:
Winds start to shift to WSW early tonight, in response to another
cold front which is expected to pass to our north early Wed AM.
Though we should see winds around 5-10 mph (strongest near the
coast) which will allow for some nighttime mixing, clear skies and
the chilly airmass should support one of the coldest nights
experienced to this point in the Fall. Other than across the Outer
Cape where lows should stay in the low to mid 40s, vast majority of
SNE should see lows drop into the 30s, including the cities. Note
that with at least light west winds, apparent temps around early Wed
AM are forecast around the upper 20s to the freezing mark for most.
Pretty chilly start to Wednesday!
While secondary/reinforcing cold front passes to our north early on
Wed, our thermal advection pattern shifts from neutral to weak warm
advection by late in the day. Wed should be pretty similar to today,
with developing WNW breezes to around 20 mph as the boundary layer
deepens by mid-morning along with full sun. Expect similar highs to
today as well, in the lower to mid 50s for the lower elevations and
cities, and mid to upper 40s for the terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
* Cold nights continue Wednesday and Thursday and will lead to frost
mornings. Headlines will not be issued as the frost/freeze program
concluded on Oct 11th.
* A low risk for a shower or two for Cape Cod and the neighboring
islands through Thursday night due to a distant low pressure
system. Otherwise, dry conditions through mid next week as high
pressure will become the dominant weather feature.
Chilly and mostly dry weather for the latter half of the workweek,
but a warm up is expected by this weekend. Heading into Wednesday
night the mid-level trough will move east, with the southern tip of
the trough, pinch off, becoming a cutoff low. At the surface a weak
low pressure system develops and moves northeast, trends have kept
it south of the bench mark. There remains a low probability of a
couple of showers mainly across the Cape and islands through
Thursday night into Friday morning. Otherwise, mid-level ridging and
surface high pressure builds in from the west and will set the tone
of dry conditions through middle of next week.
Continuing the cooler than normal temperatures Thursday, with some
moderation by Thursday afternoon. Highs in the 50s for Thursday and
returning to the lower 60s on Friday. But, more notable are the cold
temperatures Wednesday night as many spots along and north and west
of I-95 fall to the freezing mark. While areas east are in the
middle to upper 30s, coastal towns hover around 40F. Would not be
shocked to hear of a few spots in northern and western Massachusetts
fall into the upper 20s. While not as cold, Thursday night will
still feature below normal lows in the 30s north and west of I-95.
Areas east are still in the lower to middle 40s.
A modest warm up by mid-October standards with an anomolously warm
850mb air mass advecting into the region starting this weekend and
looks to remain through the first half of next week. Saturday
afternoon will be the true start to the warm-up as highs climb to
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday though Wednesday most areas will
find themselves with highs in the lower 70s with a few areas in
northern and western Massachusetts still in the upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Rest of the Overnight thru Tuesday: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds 6-12 kt (w/easing sub-20 kt gusts E MA) continuing
through about 14z Tue, then becoming NW around 10-12 kt with
gusts 20-22 kt. Winds gradually become W or WSW with speeds
ease to 5-10 kt toward the latter part of the forecast period.
Tuesday Night: High confidence.
VFR. W/WSW winds 5-10 kt, becoming WNW by the pre-dawn hrs.
Wednesday: High confidence.
VFR. WNW winds around 10 kt, with low 20-kt gusts developing
around 14-16z.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR through the period. NW winds
around 10-12 kt thru early Tue AM; NW gusts to low 20s kt range
develop around 15z thru sundown. Gusts ease around sundown and
become W/possibly WSW by early tonight, before becoming WNW by
daybreak Wed.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR thru the period. NW winds around
5-10 kt thru early Tue AM, becoming around 10-12 kt with gusts
near 20 kt by 15z thru sundown; winds become W/WSW early tonight
before becoming WNW by daybreak Wed.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
330 AM Update:
Overall forecast confidence is high, though is moderate on wind
gust speeds for the northeast waters on Wednesday.
Extended the small craft advisory for the eastern waters into
tonight, although we may need to extend SCAs into Wed for the
northeastern waters.
While NWly gusts have subsided on most waters, expect gusts to
resume around 25 kt by this morning. Gusts should be subsiding below
SCA criterion by tonight over the southern waters, but seems likely
to continue into tonight for the eastern/northeast waters. A
secondary cold frontal passage early on Wed could support continued
25 kt gusts over those nearshore and outer waters east of Cape Ann
into the Wed AM hours. With offshore winds, offshore seas should
slowly subside to 4-6 ft today, then become around 3-4 ft on
Wed.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ230>234-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 3:38 AM EDT----------------
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