IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 12:38 PM EDT540
FXUS63 KIWX 151638
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Lake effect rain showers likely near Lake Michigan tonight.
* Cool weather persists into mid-week with frost/freeze expected
Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
* Temperatures moderate sharply warmer late in the week through
next weekend with dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Last shortwave disturbance dropping south through nrn IL attm within
elongated upper trough axis aloft will kick lake banded showers wwd
out of the area by daybreak. This is already quite evident in radar
mosaics upstream with general alignment toward the ern shoreline as
downstream flow veers nerly. Thus expect a dry, chilly and breezy
day as low level thermal trough deepens further.
Aforementioned lake band will gravitate back east by late
evening before decaying late tonight timed with dry entrainment
and rapid weakening of thermal trough. Lake cloud plume extent
tonight poses some uncertainty to wrn bound of freeze potential
and will go ahead and issue one for areas along/east of SR 15.
Otherwise more widespread hard freeze likely early Thu morning
especially in light of sfc ridge building in overhead and
associated excellent radiational cooling expected.
Thereafter sharp rebound warmer into deepening swrly flow as
significant upper ridging develops through this weekend and next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of brief
MVFR cigs at FWA this afternoon as a low stratus deck continues
to gradually dissipate. Winds are expected to remain northerly
through the TAF period with occasional gusts as high as 20kts
through 00Z. There is a low chance for rain at SBN late tonight
associated with lake effect moisture, but showers are expected
to remain to the west of the terminal.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ005>009-
017-018-024>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...White
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 12:38 PM EDT---------------
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